August 2002 NCJ 194530:
Abstract:
Presents information on the consequences of rape and sexual assault for female victims. The study provides the percentages of completed rape, attempted rape, and sexual assault of females that were reported to the police in 1992-2000. The report provides the percentage of victims that were injured and treated from a completed rape, attempted rape, or sexual assault. It presents the percentage of those who reported to the police, and the percentage of those victims who received treatment and whose victimization was reported to the police.
Highlights include the following:
All rapes, 39% of attempted rapes and 17% of sexual assaults against females resulted in injured victims, 1992-2000.
When a rape or sexual assault was reported to the police, the victim was the most likely to report it.
45% of injured female victims of a reported attempted rape compared to 22% of injured victims of an unreported attempted rape received medical treatment, 1992-2000
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Reasons for not reporting to law enforcement authorities:
When victims of rape, attempted rape, and sexual assault did not report the crime to the police, the most often cited reason was that the victimization was a personal matter:
Rape: personal matter, 23.3%; fear of reprisal, 16.3%; police biased, 5.8%.
Attempted rape: personal matter, 16.8%; fear of reprisal, 11.3%; protect offender, 9.9%.
Completed and attempted sexual assault: personal matter, 25.3%; reported to different official, 12.4%; fear of reprisal, 11.3%.
The victim-offender relationship and informing the police:
The closer the relationship between the female victim and the offender, the greater the likelihood that the police would not be told about the rape or sexual assault.
When the offender was a current or former husband or boyfriend, about three-fourths of all victimizations were not reported to police (77% of completed rapes, 77% of attempted rapes, and 75% of sexual assaults not reported).
When the offender was a friend or acquaintance, 61% of completed rapes, 71% of attempted rapes, and 82% of sexual assaults were not reported.
When the offender was a stranger, 54% of completed rapes, 44% of attempted rapes, and 34% of sexual assaults were not reported to the police.
..more..
June 30, 2007
Rape and Sexual Assault: Reporting to Police and Medical Attention, 1992-2000
Indicators of School Crime and Safety: All Years
Presents data on crime and safety at school from the perspectives of students, teachers, principals, and the general population. A joint effort by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the National Center for Education Statistics, this annual report examines crime occurring in school as well as on the way to and from school.
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2008: 4/09 NCJ 226343
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2007: 12/07 NCJ 219553
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2006: 12/06 NCJ 214262
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2005: 11/05 NCJ 210697
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2004: 11/04 NCJ 205290
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2003: 10/03 NCJ 201257
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2002: 11/02 NCJ 196753
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2001: 10/01 NCJ 190075
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 2000: 10/00 NCJ 184176
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 1999: 9/99 NCJ 178906
Indicators of School Crime and Safety, 1998: 10/98 NCJ 172215
Child Victimizers: Violent Offenders and Their Victims
March 1996 Summary NCJ 158625 Full Report NCJ 153258:
Abstract:
Addressing the mandate of the National Child Protection Act of 1993, which called for a study of offenders who committed crimes against children, this study found that (a) 1 in 5 violent State prisoners (about 65,000 offenders) reported a victim under age 18; (b) older violent inmates were substantially more likely than younger inmates to have victimized a child; and (c) 8 out of 10 prisoners convicted of sexual assault had committed their crime against a victim under age 18. The study uses data from the 1991 BJS Survey of State Prison Inmates and the FBI's 1994 Supplementary Homicide Reports, which include data on child murder victims and offenders who murdered children. The 1991 inmate survey is based on personal hour-long interviews with a nationally representative sample of 14,000 prisoners in about 300 State prisons. The report describes the sociodemographic data on these offenders, the physical or sexual abuse they may have experienced, their current offense, their criminal history backgrounds (including prior offenses against children), and their use of drugs or alcohol at the time of the offense. For child victims of adult offenders, the study includes their sociodemographic backgrounds, the victim-offender relationship, and the consequences to the victim, such as injuries and weapon use by the offender. ..more..
Summary of State Sex Offender Registries Dissemination and Procedures: Update 1999
August 1999 NCJ 177620:
This factsheet summarizes State procedures, including use of the Internet, for disseminating sex offender registry information to criminal justice agencies, schools and other youth-serving organizations, and the general public. Information supplied in this report reflects conditions as of May 1, 1999. It updates the "Dissemination of Sex Offender Registry Data" section of the Summary of State Sex Offender Registries: Automation and Operation 1998. The Acrobat file version of the Factsheet includes working links to registry websites. ..more..
Summary of State Sex Offender Registries, 2001
2001 NCJ 192265:
This factsheet updates the original Summary of State Sex Offender Registries: Automation and Operation 1998. It summarizes information on the status of sex offender registries in the 50 States and the District of Columbia as they operated in February 2001. Information is presented on the organizational location of the State registries, number of offenders in the registries; their level of automation and capability to receive, store, and transmit fingerprints; whether DNA samples are included in registration procedures; and community notification procedures including use of the Internet to post information on registered offenders.
Background and overview
In March 1998 the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) established the National Sex Offender Registry Assistance Program (NSOR-AP).
As a component of the National Criminal History Improvement Program (NCHIP), NSOR-AP assists States in meeting the requirements of the Wetterling Act (Pub. L. 104-145, 110 Stat.1345), as amended by Megan's Law, and the Pam Lychner Act (Pub. L. 104-236, 110 Stat.3093). The program also provides assistance to allow States to participate in the FBI's permanent National Sex Offender Registry (NSOR). The congressional appropriation in 1998 was $25 million. Subsequent funding was provided under the ongoing NCHIP program.
Under NSOR-AP, a project was initiated in April 1998 to survey the States to evaluate the status of State sex offender registries (SOR's) and to identify priority areas, before the awarding of funds. The survey findings were published in a web-only format and are available on the BJS website at
1999 update
Pursuant to section 902 of the Protection of Children from Sexual Predators Act of 1998, Congress directed the Attorney General to study the feasibility of establishing a national hotline to access the FBI's sex offender registry. In support of this study, BJS was asked to contact the States a second time for an update of their sex offender registry dissemination procedures to reflect conditions as of May 1999.
BJS asked the States to provide information on all existing State notification systems, and also to describe any use of the Internet, CD-ROM's, and hotlines to disseminate information to the public on registered sex offenders.
Of particular interest were those procedures used to disseminate information on sexual predators, or the highest risk offenders in each State's registry.
The report Summary of State Sex Offender Registry Dissemination Procedures, Update 1999, a BJS Fact Sheet, was published in August 1999 and is on the BJS website at
Summary of State sex offender registries, update 2001
In February 2001, BJS contacted the States for a third time to obtain information on the operation of their sex offender registries. In addition to updating procedures relating to community notification, the States were asked to update information on the overall operation and automation of the SOR's. Responses were received from all 50 States and the District of Columbia. Once the information was updated, a draft was sent to the States for final review.
Location of State sex offender registries
In 17 States, the State police (patrol or troopers) were responsible for operating and maintaining the registry. The department of public safety (DPS) was responsible in 11 States. The office of the attorney general operates the registry in six States, and the department of corrections is responsible in three States. In the remaining States some other defined criminal justice agency is responsible for the SOR.
Number of offenders in the registry
Several factors in the authorizing legislation significantly influenced the size of any particular State registry, among them are included the number of different offenses requiring registration, the date that "triggers" the registration mandate, and the duration of the registration requirement. (For example, California includes all adults convicted in a California court of a covered offense since 1944.)
In February 2001, there were approximately 386,000 convicted sex offenders registered in 49 States and the District of Columbia. The number of offenders in individual State Registries ranged from 473 registrants in Maine to 88,853 registrants in California (this represents about a 14% increase in the California registry in a 3-year period), with the registry median being approximately 4,100 offenders.
The legal status of registries was a factor affecting the counts of registered sex offenders. Massachusetts' information is not included in the 386,000, because at the time the survey was conducted a superior court injunction was in place against the Sex Offender Registry Board (SORB), prohibiting registration without first providing the sex offender a hearing. The injunction was appealed to the Supreme Judicial Court. On June 28, 2001, the court concluded that the SORB can require an offender to provide his home and work address prior to providing the offender a hearing to determine whether or not the offender has to register. Under the ruling the SORB may also transmit this data, and other data regarding the offender, to police departments. However, the information may not be disseminated to the public until the board classifies the offender and the offender has an opportunity to challenge the recommended classification at an administrative hearing. Massachusetts estimates that there are about 17,000 offenders identified as qualified to register.
Comparatively, in April 1998, approximately 277,000 convicted sex offenders were registered in 49 States and the District of Columbia. (At the time the survey was conducted in 1998, Connecticut did not have a centralized sex offender registry and thus did not provide information on the number of registered offenders.) ..more.. by
June 29, 2007
OHIO’S SEX OFFENDER RESIDENCY RESTRICTION LAW: DOES IT PROTECT THE HEALTH AND SAFETY OF THE STATE’S CHILDREN OR FALSELY MAKE PEOPLE BELIEVE SO?
2000:
INTRODUCTION“We express a desire for rehabilitation of the individual, while simultaneously we do everything to prevent it . . . . We tell him to return to the norm of behavior, yet we brand him as virtually unemployable; he is required to live with his normal activities severely restricted and we react with sickened wonder and disgust when he returns to a life of crime.1”
In recent years, society has become enraged by a small number of horrible crimes committed against children by convicted sex offenders.2 Victims’ advocacy groups and the media have perpetuated a negative image and fear of sex offenders through news reports and fictionalized entertainment.3 Residency restriction laws that limit where sex offenders may reside are just one method used to deal with the growing problem of sexual violence committed against children. Many state legislatures have passed these laws in an attempt to satisfy “a public demand to be stricter on sex offenders.”4
In response to fear and public outcry, well-intentioned legislators in eighteen states have enacted residency restrictions prohibiting sex offenders from residing within a certain distance from schools, bus-stops, child-care facilities, and in some instances, places where children are “likely to congregate.”5 Most citizens do not seem to be overly concerned with protecting the rights of sex offenders and feel that these laws are necessary to protect children. As one resident taking the “not in my ..more..
by MARGARET TROIA, I would like to dedicate this note to my family and friends who have helped me make it through the stressful days of law school. I have them to thank for my achievements and success. I would also like to thank the Parma Law Department for exposing me to this issue and for helping to develop this topic. Lastly, I would like to thank Professor Phyllis Crocker for dedicating her time, hard work, and expertise as my note advisor.
Predictors of desistance among sex offenders: The interaction of formal and informal social controls
March 2000:
Abstract
Increasing attention is being given to the issue of desistance or cessation in adult criminal careers. We contribute to this research by considering how informal and formal social controls affect recidivism among 556 sex offenders placed on probation in 1992. We conduct an event history analysis of reoffense, based on the predictions of Sampson and Laub's and Gottfredson and Hirschi's control theories. We build on these perspectives by examining how informal social controls condition the effects of formal social controls generally and across offense types. We find less recidivism among offenders with stable job histories, particularly among those in court-ordered sex offender treatment. The results add both to theoretical formulations concerning desistance and recidivism and to policy formulations directed at growing prison populations. ..more.. by Candace Kruttschnitt, -and- Christopher Uggen, Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota, -and- Kelly Shelton, Minnesota Department of Corrections
June 28, 2007
Geographic Exclusion: Spatial Analysis for Evaluating the Implications of Megan's Law
2007
Abstract:
In the state of Ohio, House Bill 180, Senate Bill 175 and Senate Bill 5 collectively form Megan's Law. This law requires individuals convicted of a sexually oriented offense to register with the local sheriff 's office at least twenty days prior to the move-in date of the offender. Beginning July 31, 2003, Megan's Law prohibited an offender of a sexually oriented offense from establishing or occupying a residence within 1,000 feet of any school-related properties. A major social concern with this law and its subsequent enforcement is the belief that the geographic constraints placed on registered sex offenders effectively eliminate nearly all residential housing options. The purpose of this paper is to explore issues of geographic exclusion by conducting a spatial analysis of registered sex offenders in Hamilton County, Ohio. Analysis using geographic information systems (GIS), proximity evaluation and basic statistical techniques enables the impacts of this law to be assessed. ..more.. by Tony H. Grubesic, Indiana University, Bloomington -and- Elizabeth Mack, Indiana University, Bloomington -and- Alan T. Murray, The Ohio State University, Columbus
Perceptions of Punishment: How Registered Sex Offenders View Registries
2007:
Abstract:
Sex offender registries (SORs) are a societal response to serious and presumably dangerous criminal offenders. Existing research on registries has focused on demographic overviews of registrants, assessments of registrants' recidivism, accuracy and completeness of listed information, and collateral consequences for registrants. The present research assesses the perceptions of registrants regarding the value of SORs as a tool to enhance community awareness and promote public safety. In addition, this study examines offenders' perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of registry format and structure and suggestions for improvement. Results show that registrants see significant potential for registries but seriously question the efficacy and efficiency of how registries are currently constructed and used. ..more.. by Richard Tewksbury, University of Louisville, KY -and- Matthew B. Lees, University of Louisville, KY
June 27, 2007
Child Sexual Molestation: Research Issues
June 1997 NCJ 163390:
civil commitment study skewing this study.
Executive Summary
Over the past 25 years, the problem of child sexual victimization has received significant attention from researchers, clinicians, and policymakers. Yet underreporting of sexual offenses against children has made it impossible to gauge either the frequency of such incidents or the size of victim and offender populations. In addition, deficient research methodologies have yielded incompatible or contradictory findings with regard to the characteristics, motivations, and recidivism rates of offenders. As a result, critical decisions about offender dangerousness, control, and treatment have been made in the absence of a sound knowledge base. In recent years, however, efforts have been made to (1) develop and validate an empirically based model of the agents and factors that lead to child sexual abuse, and (2) design and test statistical methods for assessing reoffense risk.
Important findings:
n The classification, diagnosis, and assessment of child molesters are complicated by a high degree of variability among individuals in terms of personal characteristics, life experiences, criminal histories, and reasons for offending. There is no single “profile” that accurately describes or accounts for all child molesters.
n Sexual focus in child molesters has two independent dimensions: intensity of pedophilic interest and exclusivity of the sexual preference for children. The more an offender’s sexual preference is limited to children, the less socially competent (as measured by the strength and range of social and sexual relationships with adults) he is likely to be.
n Most victims of childhood sexual abuse do not go on to become child molesters. However, sexual victimization as a child, if accompanied by other moderating factors—such as the co-occurrence of other types of abuse—may contribute to the child-victim’s later emergence as a perpetrator of child sexual abuse. Similarly, social competence deficits are clearly significant in child molestation, but an individual’s inadequate social and interpersonal skills do not, by themselves, make his sexual abuse of children inevitable.
n A history of impulsive, antisocial behavior is a well-documented risk factor for certain predatory, extrafamilial child molesters; offenders who have this background and who began their offending careers in adolescence have also evidenced higher degrees of nonsexual aggression.
n Early childhood experiences, such as a high turnover in primary caregivers (which is a strong predictor of adult sexual violence), may interfere with the development of viable, age-appropriate adult relationships, making it more likely that children are selected as sexual targets.
n Physiological arousal to children often accompanies a sexual interest in them. Phallometric assessment of sexual arousal in response to depictions of children can differentiate child molesters from nonmolesters, same-sex molesters from opposite-sex molesters, and extrafamilial molesters from incest offenders.
n An empirical classification typology for child molesters, based on stable traits that have identifiable roots in childhood, is being developed by NIJ-supported researchers. Known as MTC:CM3, the system classifies child molesters according to variables on two coordinates: the first focuses on fixation and social competence, and the second focuses on contact with children, injury to victim, and
sadism. The system is an important first step in the design of research on etiology, treatment, disposition, and prognosis. Although further revision and refinement of the typology are necessary, studies support the reliability and validity of the classification structure.
n Recidivism rates across studies are confounded by differences in legal guidelines and statutes among States, length of exposure time (i.e., time in the community, where the opportunity exists to reoffend), offender characteristics, treatment-related variables (including differential attrition rates, amount of treatment, and integrity of treatment program), amount and quality of posttreatment supervision, and many other factors.
n A 25-year followup study of 111 extrafamilial child molesters included extensive data from criminal justice records and rationally derived composites of variables. The study demonstrated an ability (1) to discriminate among offenders who committed sexual crimes involving physical contact with a victim, nonsexual crimes involving physical contact with a victim, and nonsexual crimes in which no physical contact with a victim occurred and (2) to predict reoffense probabilities with reasonable accuracy. If these results can be replicated in studies of other offenders, use of a scale based on archival records may represent an easy, cost-effective, and reliable substitute for intrusive and time consuming physiological assessment.
n Although optimal treatment interventions have yet to be identified, the most effective intervention to date—cognitive behavior therapy and, when appropriate, antidepressant and antiandrogen medication— has reduced recidivism among child molesters.
n Intensive community-based supervision and management of child molesters are essential to reduce sexual victimization rates; child abusers have been known to reoffend as late as 20 years following release into the community. ..more.. by Robert A. Prentky, Ph.D. -and- Raymond A. Knight, Ph.D. -and- Austin F.S. Lee, Ph.D.
Child Rape Victims, 1992
June 1994 NCJ 147001:
This data brief provides information on the ages of female rape victims. BJS obtained the data from the 15 States that currently compile such detailed victim information. The data pertain to rapes reported to police in 1992. ..more.. by Patrick A. Langan, Ph.D. -and- Caroline Wolf Harlow, Ph.D., BJS Statisticians
Women Offenders
December 1999 NCJ 175688:
Examines offending by adult women and their handling by the criminal justice system. Utilizing the self-reports of victims of personal contact crimes gathered in the National Criminal Victimization Survey from 1993-97, the report analyzes offense patterns, rates of offending, and the contingencies and consequences of crimes committed by women. It also provides an extensive examination of homicides committed by women and trends in murder.
Data on arrests, convictions, and sentencing of women from FBI and BJS national data series are also explored and case-processing flows are estimated for men and women offenders. This comprehensive analysis of offending by women also utilizes detailed data on women offenders gathered from periodic surveys of offenders on probation or in confined populations. These sample survey data cover a wide variety of topics, including prior criminal record, substance abuse and treatment, health condition, children and family background, poverty, employment, and recidivism. Information on correctional institutions for women is also provided, including data on the number and types of such facilities and their characteristics. ..more.. by Lawrence A. Greenfeld -and- Tracy L. Snell, BJS Statisticians
Juvenile Victimization and Offending, 1993-2003
August 2005 NCJ 209468:
Presents findings about violent crime committed against or by juveniles from 1993 to 2003. Comparisons are made in the report between younger teens (ages 12-14), older teens (ages 15-17), and adults. Data are drawn from the National Crime Victimization Survey for nonfatal violent victimization and offending {rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated and simple assault} among those 12 years and older, and from the FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports for fatal victimization and offending of the entire population. Analyses include characteristics of victim, offender, and of the criminal event such as weapons, location, and time of day.
Highlights include the following:
The number of victimizations by violent crime per 1,000 teenagers dropped from about 130 victimizations in 1993 to about 60 in 2003
On average, juveniles (ages 12-17) were more than twice as likely as adults (age 18 or older) to be the victim of violent crime from 1993 to 2003.
Older teens (15-17) were about 3 times more likely than younger teens (12-14) to be the victim of a violent crime involving a firearm.
Juveniles were involved as victims or offenders in 38% of all violent crimes in which the victim could estimate the age of the offender(s), 1993-2003. ..more.. by
A 25-Year Follow-Up of Cognitive/Behavioral Therapy with 7,275 Sexual Offenders
2002:
Abstract:
Outcome data are presented, grouped into 5-year cohorts, for 7,275 sexual offenders entering a cognitive/behavioral treatment program. Assessment variables included treatment completion, self-admission of covert and/or overt deviant behaviors, the presence of deviant sexual arousal, or being recharged for any sexual crime (regardless of plea or conviction).
It proved possible to follow 62% for the cohort at 5 years after initiating treatment, but follow-up completion rates decreased with time. Outcomes were significantly different based on offender subtype, with child molesters and exhibitionists achieving better overall success than pedophiles or rapists. Prematurely terminating treatment was a strong indicator of committing a new sexual offense.
Of interest was the general improvement of success rates over each successive 5-year period for many types of offenders. Unfortunately, failure rates remained comparatively high for rapists (20%) and homosexual pedophiles (16%), regardless of when they were treated over the 25-year period. Implications for clinical practice and future research are drawn. ..more.. by Barry M. Maletzky, Oregon Health Sciences University -and- Cynthia Steinhauser, The Sexual Abuse Clinic
SEX OFFENDER TREATMENT PROGRAMS
2002:
Abstract:
Although the number of convicted sex offenders grew from 2,768 in 1990 to 3,875 in 1995, the rate of reported sexual offences generally declined in recent years. In 1997, the rate of reported sexual offences was 101 per 100,000 people, a massive decline from a high of 135 per 100,000 people in 1993. Furthermore, there is an increasing amount of research that supports the idea that sex offenders can be treated successfully to allow them to lead crime free lives upon release. For example, one recent meta-analysis found that, across several studies, 19% of treated sex offenders and 27% of untreated sex offenders sexually recidivated. Given research such as this and the experience of the John Howard Society in working with sex offenders, the rest of this paper rests on the presumption that sex offenders are treatable and treatment programs do work. The question is: How can sex offenders be treated most effectively? Overall, research has found that sexual recidivism for all sex offenders is quite low, with rates of only 10% to 15% five years after release. Also, research has found that sex offenders can be categorized into three groups that have different recidivism rates and, thereby, require different treatments. These groups are incest child molesters who victimize related children, rapists who victimize adult women and non-incest child molesters who victimize unrelated children. ..more.. by John Howard Society of Alberta Canada
State Sex Offender Treatment Programs: 50 State Survey
November 2000:
Formal sex offender treatment programs are being conducted in 39 states. There were 154,518 sex offenders incarcerated in 43 states that provided statistics, among those states sex offenders represented 26% of the total prison population. Thirty four states provided the duration of their programs: 28 offer 1+ years, of those, 19 are 3-year programs, and 8 are over 3 years long. States were unanimous in using cognitive behavioral treatment with relapse prevention as the focus.
The 12-states without any prison sex offender therapy program are: Alabama, California, Delaware, Dist. of Columbia, Florida, Idaho (under consideration), Maine, Mississippi, Nevada (informal one running), Oregon, West Virginia (under review), and Wyoming (in transition). ..more.. by Mary West, EdD, DOC Deputy Director of Special Operations, -and- C. Scott Hromas, DOC Director of Research -and- Paula Wenger, Consultant, Colorado Department of Corrections
UPDATE:State Sex Offender Treatment Programs: 50 State Survey
February 2002:
Note: This is the largest (in physical size) statistical chart I have ever seen, 45" by 25" inches, it is very hard to deal with without a magnifier. Good luck, if you can read it, but there are ways, it is a very valuable update.
There are STILL 10-states without any prison sex offender therapy programs are: Alabama, California, Florida, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, North Dakota (unknown), Oregon. ..more.. by CO-DOC
Age and Sexual Recidivism: A Comparison of Rapists and Child Molesters
Table 1 shows all the underlying studies used. However, those studies are based on varying "Recidivism Criteria" sometimes convictions or charges or readmissions to prison. Many of these are not even crimes.
Further, the total sample size (4,673) includes 1,137 (24%) from a already questioned California study of civil commitment persons. i.e., already known to be recidivists. Such slants the statistics making the study not a good cross section of all sex offenders.
In addition, two of the underlying studies are from 1976 and 1983 released inmates who had no therapy programs available to them. Again slanting the input towards known recidivists.
2001:
Abstract
This study examined the relationship of age to sexual recidivism using data from 10 follow-up studies of adult male sexual offenders (combined sample of 4,673). Rapists were younger than child molesters and the recidivism risk of rapists steadily decreased with age. In contrast, extrafamilial child molesters showed relatively little reduction in recidivism risk until after the age of 50. The recidivism rate of intrafamilial child molesters was generally low (less than 10%), except for the intrafamilial offenders in the 18 to 24 year old age group, whose recidivism risk was comparable to that of rapists and extrafamilial child molesters. The results are discussed in terms of developmental changes in sexual drive, self-control, and opportunities to offend. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson
Department of the Solicitor General Canada
Assessing Violent Recidivism in Sexual Offenders
1998:
ABSTRACT:
Forensic and clinical psychologists have long been asked to make predictions about violence, despite the fact that, in the past, such predictions have been notoriously inaccurate. Several states now have sexual predator laws which require predictions to be made concerning the likelihood of recidivism. Since the U.S. Supreme Court in Kansas v. Hendricks (1997) upheld Kansas's sexual predator laws, such requests are likely to increase in the future. Fortunately, there is now ongoing empirical research which has improved psychologists' ability to predict violence in high risk groups. Several schemes for predict violence are in the process of research and development. ..more.. by Hollida Wakefield and Ralph Underwager
June 26, 2007
The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases
January 2001:
Introduction:
Of all crimes against children, sexual abuse has arguably captured the greatest share of attention from child advocates, professionals, policymakers, and the general public. During the 1980’s, increasing numbers of victims were identified each year (American Association for the Protection of Children, 1988) and concerns about this crime intensified. However, a dramatic shift in child sexual abuse trends has occurred. Data from child protective services (CPS) agencies across the country indicate that the increases of the 1980’s were followed by an extensive period of marked declines in the 1990’s. Unfortunately, little effort has been expended to uncover the reasons why fewer cases of child sexual abuse have been identified each year. The decline in child sexual abuse cases is being highlighted as a part of OJJDP’s Crimes Against Children Series to illustrate the importance of tracking and investigating trends in child victimization. This Bulletin uses data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) and the Annual Fifty State Survey conducted by Prevent Child Abuse America to present evidence about the decline in reported and substantiated child sexual abuse cases since the early 1990’s. Several explanations for the decline are considered, and corresponding policy implications are discussed.
Highlights
The analysis of child sexual abuse cases presented in this Bulletin reveals the following:
Substantiated cases of child sexual abuse decreased from a national estimated peak of 149,800 cases in 1992 to 103,600 cases in 1998, a decline of 31 percent.
A decline in substantiated cases has occurred in the majority of States, with no clear regional pattern. Out of 47 States with complete data, 36 recorded a decline of more than 30 percent since their peak year. The average decline for all States was 37 percent.
For most States, the decline was gradual, rather than abrupt, and occurred over several years.
Although cases of other types of child maltreatment have also declined in recent years, the decrease in child sexual abuse cases has been more marked. Substantiated cases of physical abuse declined 16 percent from a 1995 peak, compared with a 31-percent decline in child sexual abuse cases.
In addition to the decline in the number of substantiated cases, child sexual abuse reports also decreased from an estimated 429,000 in 1991 to 315,400 in 1998, a 26-percent decline.
Possible explanations for the decline include a real underlying decline in the incidence of child sexual abuse or changes in attitudes, policies, and standards that have reduced the amount of child sexual abuse being reported and substantiated. It is possible that both of these processes are affecting trends in child sexual abuse. ..more.. by Lisa Jones and David Finkelhor
Explanations for the Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases
January 2004:
The number of sexual abuse cases substantiated by child protective service (CPS) agencies dropped a remarkable 40 percent between 1992 and 2000, from an estimated 150,000 cases to 89,500 cases, but professional opinion is divided about why (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001; Jones, Finkelhor, and Kopiec, 2001). It is possible that the incidence of sexual abuse has declined as a result of two decades of prevention, treatment, and aggressive criminal justice activity. It is also possible that there has been no real decline, and that the apparent decline is explained by a drop in the number of cases being identified and reported or by changes in practices of child protection agencies.
Identifying the source or sources of the decline in the number of substantiated sexual abuse cases is important. The possibility that a real decline occurred is heartening and could point the way to more effective strategies for preventing all kinds of child maltreatment. On the other hand, if the decline is due solely to decreased reporting or changes in CPS procedures, it could mean that more children are failing to get the help and services they need.
This Bulletin explores the strengths and weaknesses of six possible explanations for the decline by using data from a number of different sources (see page 3): aggregate data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS); detailed child protective service data from Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania; and self-report data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and from schoolchildren in Minnesota. It provides substantially more evidence about the decline than was available in a previous Bulletin on the same topic, The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001). ..more.. by David Finkelhor and Lisa M. Jones
The Geographic Link Between Sex Offenders and Potential Victims: A Routine Activities Approach
2001:
Abstract
Despite the publicity surrounding several high-profile sex offender incidents in the 1990s, relatively little research has been done on sex offenders themselves. This article reports on a study of sex offenders in one Arkansas county who had children as victims. Specifically, we examined the relationship between where the offenders live and where children congregate to see whether offenders choose to reside in areas with high concentrations of children. We use routine activities theory as a foundation for explaining our results, and conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of the findings. ..more.. by Jeffrey T. Walker -and- James W. Golden -and- Amy C. VanHouten
Justice and Research Policy
Reducing Housing Options for Convicted Sex Offenders: Investigating the Impact of Residency Restriction Laws Using GIS
2006:
Abstract
Sex offender registries have been established throughout the United States. To date, 16 states have adopted additional residency restriction policies, precluding registered sex offenders from living within a certain distance of places where children gather. This study quantifies the impact of residency restrictions on housing options for registered sex offenders using Orange County, Florida, as a case study. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is employed to identify all occupied residential properties using parcel-level zoning data as well as those that fall within the 1,000-foot restricted buffer zones around attractions, bus stops, daycares, parks, and schools. Results indicate that housing options for registered sex offenders within urban residential areas are limited to only 5% of potentially available parcels and that bus stop restrictions impact the amount of livable area the most, followed by daycares, schools, parks, and attractions. The limited options to establish residency exist mostly in low-density rural areas. This supports the argument that residency restrictions for sexual offenders are a strong contributing factor to their social and economic isolation. The impacts of increasing the buffer to a proposed 2,500-foot zone are discussed, and a comparison of the individual restriction categories is presented. ..more.. by Paul A. Zandbergen -and- Timothy C. Hart Volume 8, Number 2, 2006
Justice Research and Policy
June 25, 2007
The Reality of Recovered Memories: Corroborating Continuous and Discontinuous Memories of Childhood Sexual Abuse
July 2007:
ABSTRACT:
Although controversy surrounds the relative authenticity of discontinuous versus continuous memories of childhood sexual abuse (CSA), little is known about whether such memories differ in their likelihood of corroborative evidence. Individuals reporting CSA memories were interviewed, and two independent raters attempted to find corroborative information for the allegations. Continuous CSA memories and discontinuous memories that were unexpectedly recalled outside therapy were more likely to be corroborated than anticipated discontinuous memories recovered in therapy. Evidence that suggestion during therapy possibly mediates these differences comes from the additional finding that individuals who recalled the memories outside therapy were markedly more surprised at the existence of their memories than were individuals who initially recalled the memories in therapy. These results indicate that discontinuous CSA memories spontaneously retrieved outside of therapy may be accurate, while implicating expectations arising from suggestions during therapy in producing false CSA memories. ..more.. by Elke Geraerts -and- JonathanW. Schooler -and- Harald Merckelbach -and- Marko Jelicic -and- Beatrijs J.A. Hauer -and- Zara Ambadar
June 23, 2007
Three State Recidivism Study
September 2001:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Correctional Education Association conducted the Three State Recidivism Study for the United States Department of Education Office of Correctional Education. The study was designed to see if education, independent of other programs, could have significant impact on the behavior of inmates after release. Data on about 3,200 inmates, who were released from Maryland, Minnesota and Ohio prisons in late 1997 and early 1998, are reported in this longitudinal study. The research design, which uses educational participation while incarcerated as the major variable, measures the impact of education while incarcerated on post release behavior, primarily recidivism and employment. The states pooled their data in a format that allows for individual state as well as aggregate reports. Within each state the correctional, parole and probation, education and work force agencies cooperated in the data collection.
When the study began each state determined 1,000 or more people about to be released from their state prisons. This type of research design, called a release cohort, provides for a framework with internal control groups.
The research tools were designed by a number of correctional researchers. The Pre-Release Survey was developed to gather information from the inmates themselves on factors closely correlated with criminal behavior. These included information on socio-economic factors, criminal behavior, family life, educational experiences and work history. The Educational/Institutional Data Collection Form contained questions that included criminal behavior, demographic information, institutional behavior and education history during incarceration. The Parole/Release Officer Survey contained questions designed to collect data on subsequent criminal behavior, employment and educational experiences. Post Release Criminal History Data was collected to measure recidivism. Employment data was collected to find out about the kinds of jobs and the amount of wages earned after release.
Inmates, about to be released, were assembled in the various institutions where the Pre-Release Survey was administered by trained staff. Those who did not want to take the survey were excused. The refusal rate was very low. Inmates put their answers on scan sheets. Criminal history and educational data from the education and correction records were collected from the various agencies using the Educational/Institutional Data Collection Form in either an electronic or a scan sheet format. After release the parole officers were sent the Parole/Release Officer Survey for behavioral, educational and employment information for the ex-offenders under their supervision. In two states, the state departments of labor were able to contribute Employment Data for post release employment and wage information. Finally, re-arrest, re-conviction and re-incarceration data were collected from state Criminal History Data files. The federal Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics commonly uses these three areas to describe recidivism.
All the information obtained from the surveys and state databases were entered into one large database to allow for individual state and aggregate reports. Over 500 variables were collected on each of the study participants, resulting in a very large quantity of information. There are demographic data on family and community background, economic status and employment, educational experience, offender perspectives on education and motivational factors that correlate highly with criminality as well as educational, correctional and criminal history. This is the first study to collect extensive information from the inmates themselves.
Another unique aspect of the study is the collection of individual wage data from two of the states labor databases. Data was collected from each state, but only Maryland and Minnesota was useable. The Ohio data was in a format that could not be read by the researchers.
The analysis of the data indicates that inmates who participated in education programs while incarcerated showed lower rates of recidivism after three years. For each state the three measures of recidivism, re-arrest, re-conviction and re-incarceration were significantly lower. The employment data shows that in every year, for the three years that the study participants were followed, the wages reported to the state labor departments were higher for the education participants compared to the non-participants.
The following report narrates the overall design, execution of the study, data analysis, discussion of the results and conclusions. ..more.. by Dr. Stephen J. Steurer -and- Dr. Linda Smith -and- Dr. Alice Tracy, Correctional Education Association
Juvenile Offenders and Victims: 2006 National Report
March 2006 -- NCJ 212906:
America’s youth are facing an ever-changing set of problems and barriers to successful lives. As a result, we are constantly challenged to develop enlightened policies and programs to address the needs and risks of those youth who enter our juvenile justice system. The policies and programs we create must be based on facts, not fears. Too often, the facts are unknown or not readily available. This Report is designed to remedy, at least in part, that information gap.
Juvenile Offenders and Victims: 2006 National Report draws on reliable data and relevant research to provide a comprehensive and insightful view of juvenile crime across the nation. The Report offers Congress, state legislators and other state and local policymakers, professors and teachers, juvenile justice professionals, and concerned citizens empirically based answers to frequently asked questions about the nature of juvenile crime and victimization and about the justice system’s response.
Citing FBI and other data sources, the Report demonstrates that the rate of juvenile violent crime arrests has consistently decreased since 1994, falling to a level not seen since at least the 1970s. However, during this period of overall decline in juvenile violence, the female proportion of juvenile violent crime arrests has increased (especially for the crime of assault), marking an important change in the types of youth entering the juvenile justice system and in their programming needs. The Report also describes when and where juvenile violent crime occurs, focusing attention on the critical afterschool hours. Statistics presented throughout the Report find that racial disparity in the juvenile justice system is declining.
For example, the black juvenile violent crime arrest rate in the late 1980s was six times the white rate - by 2003, it had fallen to four times the white rate. During the same period, the black juvenile arrest rate for drug abuse violations fell from five times to less than double the white rate.
The Report also presents new findings from OJJDP’s national Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement. The daily number of committed youth held in public and private facilities increased 28% between 1991 and 2003, with the increase far greater in private than in public facilities.
However, after peaking in 1999, the number of youth in custody began to fall—for the first time in a generation. In sum, Juvenile Offenders and Victims: 2006 National Report offers a clear view of juvenile crime and the justice system’s response at the beginning of the 21st century. It is an indispensable resource for informed professionals who strive to shape the juvenile justice system today.
..235 pages more.. CAUTION This is a 9.45 megabyte file, slow loading by Howard N. Snyder -and- Melissa Sickmund, National Center for Juvenile Justice
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Juvenile population characteristics
Chapter 2: Juvenile victims
Chapter 3: Juvenile offenders
Chapter 4: Juvenile justice system structure and process
Chapter 5: Law enforcement and juvenile crime
Chapter 6: Juvenile offenders in court
Chapter 7: Juvenile offenders in correctional facilities
Index
June 22, 2007
STATE OF CONNECTICUT, Recidivism Study, Annual Report
March 2007:
STUDY DESCRIPTION AND DEFINITION OF TERMS
In 2000, the Connecticut Department of Correction released 9,501 inmates who had been convicted of a crime and sentenced to serve time in prison. These inmates were released because they had either completed their court-ordered prison sentence or were placed in a community-based program while remaining under the supervision of the Department of Correction or Board of Parole. Of the 9,501 inmates, we were able to obtain court records for 8,221 (an 87% match rate) of them. While this match rate is not perfect, it is acceptable for the purposes of this study.
For the purpose of this study, reconviction and resentenced to prison were used as the measures of recidivism. These were selected because they were believed to be the most accurate information available. While arrest data is commonly used as a measure of recidivism, it may not always be accurate. For example, if a person is arrested and the charge receives a nolle2, the record of this arrest will be erased after thirteen months.
This study followed six different groups of ex-inmates. These groups were created based on their (1) type of prison release (end of sentence or community-based program) and (2) type of community supervision received prior to or immediately following prison release (parole, transitional supervision, DOC community-based program).3 ..more.. by OFFICE OF POLICY & MANAGEMENT, Criminal Justice Policy and Planning Division
June 20, 2007
A User's Guide to the Stored Communications Act, and a Legislator's Guide to Amending It
Abstract:
Americans care deeply about their Internet privacy. But if they want to know how federal law protects the privacy of their stored Internet communications, they'll quickly learn that it's surprisingly difficult to figure out. The federal statute that protects the privacy of stored Internet communications is the Stored Communications Act (SCA), passed as part of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986 and codified at 18 U.S.C. section 2701-11. But courts, legislators, and even legal scholars have had a very hard time understanding the method behind the madness of the SCA. The statute is dense and confusing, and that confusion has made it difficult for legislators to legislate in the field, reporters to report about it, and scholars to write scholarship in this very important area.
This Article presents a user's guide to the SCA. It explains in relatively simple terms the structure and text of the Act so that legislators, courts, academics, and students can understand how it works - and in some cases, how it doesn't work. I hope to explain the basic nuts and bolts of the statute and show that the statute works reasonably effectively, although certainly not perfectly. My second goal is to show how Congress needs to amend the SCA. I recommend three ways that Congress should rethink the SCA to better protect the privacy of stored Internet communications, clarify its protections, and update the statute for the present. Specifically, I argue that Congress should raise the threshold the government must satisfy to compel the contents of certain Internet communications; that it should simplify the statute dramatically by eliminating the confusing categories of electronic communication service and remote computing service, and eliminating redundant text; and that it should restructure the remedies scheme for violations of the statute. ..more.. by ORIN S. KERR, George Washington University - Law School
June 19, 2007
Collateral Consequences of Sex Offender Registration
June 2005:
Abstract:
Sex offender registrationwas widely implemented in the 1990s as a means of enhancingcommunity awareness of sex offenders to promote community safety. This study is one of the first examinations of the collateral consequences of sex offender registration from the perspective of the offender. Drawing on data from 121 registered sex offenders in Kentucky, this research shows that social stigmatization, loss of relationships, employment, and housing, and both verbal and physical assaults are experienced by a significant minority of registered sex offenders. ..more.. by Richard Tewksbury, University of Louisville
This study is flawed in various ways, while the study says there were 795 subjects (33%) polled (randomly?) from the registry, only 121 were actually used, a small sample. The study excluded 3 groups of possible subjects: 1) Those with unknown addresses, and these could have a major impact on the study because the registry does cause registrants to be evicted. While it would be hard, or impossible, to find these folks, the researcher should have made a footnote that this group, if found, could significantly change the results; Those who recently registered (within the past 6 months), this is the group who would most likely experience consequences from the community when exposed to the community by the registry. After the initial shock of a RSO living in the community public awareness wanes; and thirdly, those incarcerated. Generally speaking the community does little about this group unless they seek services in the community.
One only has to look at the following to know that attacks on sex offenders are WIDESPREAD and includes murders of many. The main problem with this study is, the conclusion that "only a significant minority of RSOs experience collateral consequences from being registered." The study looked only at 10 possible consequences when daily RSOs experience many subtle consequences which the study failed to consider, including consequences to family members living with registrants.
On Sex Offender Murders
Compilation of Deaths
AGE AND SEXUAL RECIDIVISM
May 2001:
Question: Does the risk of sexual offending decrease with age?
Answer: On average, the rate of sexual recidivism decreased with age. The effect was not large and the patterns were different for rapists, extrafamilial child molesters and intrafamilial child molesters (incest offenders). For rapists, the highest risk age period was between 18 and 25 years, with a gradual decline in risk for each older age period. There were very few old rapists (greater than age 60) and none were known to recidivate sexually. In contrast, the highest risk period for extrafamilial child molesters was between the ages of 25 and 35, with only modest declines in their recidivism risk until after the age of 50. Incest offenders were less likely to recidivate than either rapists or extrafamilial child molesters; however, incest offenders in the 18 to 25 year age group were among the offenders most likely to sexually reoffend. The observed pattern of results is consistent with developmental changes in sexual drive, self-control, and opportunities to offend. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson, Ph.D., Solicitor General Canada Study available
Age and Recidivism: How Accurate are Our Predictions?
November 2004:
Psychopathy and Age
Most crime is perpetrated by males in their late adolescence and early adulthood. After that most offenders commit fewer crimes or stop offending altogether. Many have argued that although most offenders “burn out” and quit offending as they get older, especially violent psychopaths would not “burn out”, but instead would continue to reoffend.
The best-accepted measure of psychopathy is the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R),1 on which a score of 30 or above (out of a possible 40) is recommended as the appropriate cut-off for diagnostic purposes.
Psychopathy, as measured by the PCL-R, is characterized by 20 criteria relating to affective / interpersonal traits (e.g. glibness/superficial charm, pathological lying, lack of remorse, shallow affect; Factor 1) and a chronically impulsive and unstable lifestyle (e.g. need for stimulation, lack of realistic goals, promiscuity; Factor 2). The predictive qualities of the instrument are very good.2
Using the PCL-R, the complete criminal career and community release profiles of 317 Canadian federal offenders (224 low scorers and 93 scoring within the psychopathic range) were compiled.3 Crimes were coded according to age at commission, and were coded as either violent, non-violent, or non-sexually violent. Results showed that offenders scoring within the psychopathic range consistently committed more violent and non-violent crimes than the low-scorers starting in adolescence and continuing into their late-40’s, after which the re-conviction rate of high scorers decreased substantially relative to low-scorers.
For non-violent crimes, the two groups both virtually ceased reoffending by their late 40’s. Similarly, for non-sexual violent crimes, the two groups both virtually ceased re-offending by their late 40’s, with the high scorers actually committing fewer offenses than the low scorers. This effect was even more pronounced for violent crimes, with the high scorers committing fewer offenses than the low-scorers after their early 40’s.
These results indicate that even most psychopaths “burn-out” in mid-life. Reasons may include lack of opportunity, lack of physical strength, ill health, and scrutiny by law and justice agencies, as well as lack of continued criminal propensities. ..more.. by Brett Trowbridge, Ph.D., J.D., Washington Criminal Defense, November 2004, vol. 18 no. 4
June 16, 2007
Reliability and Validity of the Static-2002 Among Adult Sexual Offenders with Reference to Treatment Status
May 2007 NCJ 218434:
This study sought to investigate the reliability and validity of the Static-2002, as a measure of sexual offense recidivism risk.
Abstract: Overall, the data is encouraging suggesting that the Static-2002 has reasonable scale properties, can be coded reliably, and is at least as accurate at predicting sexual/serious recidivism as it predecessors, while representing an attempt to enhance conceptual clarity and scoring consistency. The Static-2002 is an instrument developed to predict sexual and violent recidivism among sexual offenders. In a sample comprised of 468 sexual offenders offered treatment at the Warkworth Sexual Behavior Clinic (WSCB), this study carried out a series of analyses to investigate the reliability and validity of the Static-2002. Participants were followed for an average of 5.9 years after their release. Tables, figures, references ..more.. by Calvin M. Langton ; Howard E. Barbaree ; Kevin T. Hansen ; Leigh Harkins ; Edward J. Peacock Study is available from
June 15, 2007
State Sex Offender Registry Web Sites: A Content Analysis of All 50 States and the District of Columbia
June 2007 National:
Introduction
A significant social problem that many people face today is sexual abuse and violence. Most people who experience a form of sexual abuse and/or violence are extremely ashamed. The intense feelings of shame that accompany the victims of sexual offenses cause those victims to keep that shame and the cause of it a secret. For that reason, many victims of sexual violence keep their victimization a secret. The secret nature of sexual abuse and violence often veils the elevated number of Americans who actually do experience such victimization (Welchans, 2005).
History and Nature of the Problem
In 2004, the Uniform Crime Reports, compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, calculated that 94,635 forcible rapes had been reported in the United States (U.S. Department of Justice, USDOJ, 2004). The Bureau of Justice Statistics, in one report, stated that in 2005, for every 1,000 people age twelve and older, one rape or sexual assault occurred (USDOJ, 2005). In examining college-age women, one study found that 28 out of every 1,000 women were the victim of rape or attempted rape within a six month period (Fisher et al., 2000 as cited by Welchans, 2005).
Children can be the victims of sexual offenses and assaults too. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 16% of all rape victims, across twelve studied states, were under the age of twelve (Langan, et al, 1994 as cited by Welchans, 2005). In 1998 alone, the number of corroborated cases of child sexual abuse reached over 103,500 in the United States (Jones, et al, 2001 as cited by Welchans, 2005). Freeman-Longo (1996) reported that as many as one in every five children is at risk for sexual victimization before reaching their eighteenth birthday. ..more.. by Christina Lombardo
Just The Facts About Online Youth Victimization: Researchers Present the Facts and Debunk Myths
5-3-2007 National:
The nation's foremost academic researchers on child online safety presented their research and answered questions over a luncheon panel on May 3. This was the first time these prominent academics have appeared together to present their research, which, altogether, represents volumes of data on the state of online youth victimization and online youth habits. More than likely you have heard pieces of their research quoted (or misquoted) on Capitol Hill during the last 12 months as Congress struggles to understand these issues. The discussion covered issues related to online youth safety including recent trends and the latest research. A sampling of their academic works are posted on the Resources page. ..more.. by Dr. David Finkelhor, Director, Crimes against Children Research Center (CCRC), University of New Hampshire -and- Danah Boyd, Researcher, University of California, Berkeley and Fellow, University of Southern California Annenberg Center for Communications -and- Dr. Michele Ybarra, President, Internet Solutions for Kids and author of several studies on youth online
June 10, 2007
Sex Offender Recidivism
1999 John Howard Society
Sex offenders are of grave concern to the public due to the nature of sexual offending. The public tends to believe that the recidivism rates of sexual offenders, particularly pedophiles, are quite high. This information sheet is intended to provide a quick overview of the research on this topic.
Recidivism is defined as being charged with the commission of a new offence. In the case of sex offenders, the public is most concerned with sexual recidivism - the commission of a new sexual offence. Recidivism rates vary by the time frame being looked at and by the type of sexual offending.
Recidivism Rates
One research project looked at 61 previous studies of sexual recidivism using a 4-5 year follow up period. This research on sex offenders found that 13.4% recidivated with a sexual offence, 12.2% recidivated with a non-sexual, violent offence and 36.6% recidivated with any other offence.
A long term follow-up study of child molesters in Canada found that 42% were reconvicted of sexual or violent crime during the 15-30 year follow-up period.
In addition, the long-term follow-up study (15-30 years)of child molesters showed that the average recidivism rate for this group of offenders is actually lower than the average recidivism rate for non-sexual offenders (61% versus 83.2% respectively for any new conviction).
Likelihood of Recidivism
The long term follow-up study referred to above included a control group of non-sexual criminals. The highest rate of recidivism (77%) was for those with previous sexual offences, who selected boy victims outside the family and who were never married.
In general, rapists reoffend more often than child molesters.
Among child molesters, those with male victims have been found to have the highest recidivism rates, followed by those with unrelated female victims.
Incest offenders show the lowest recidivism rates of all sexual offenders. ..more.. by John Howard Society
June 9, 2007
Predicting Relapse: A meta-Analysis of Sexual Offender Recidivism Studies
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Predictors of Sexual Recidivism: An Updated Meta-Analysis, 2004-02
2004-02
Abstract
This quantitative review examined the research evidence concerning recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders. A total of 95 different studies were examined, involving more than 31,000 sexual offenders and close to 2000 recidivism predictions. The results confirmed deviant sexual interests and antisocial orientation as important predictors of sexual recidivism. Antisocial orientation (e.g., unstable lifestyle, history of rule violation) was a particularly important predictor of violent non-sexual recidivism and general recidivism. The study also identified a number of new predictor variables, some of which have the potential of being useful targets for intervention (e.g., sexual preoccupations, conflicts in intimate relationships, emotional identification with children, hostility). Actuarial risk instruments were consistently more accurate than unguided clinical opinion in predicting sexual, violent nonsexual and general recidivism. For the prediction of sexual recidivism, there were no significant differences in the predictive accuracy of the various actuarial measures (e.g., SORAG, Static -99). Actuarial measures designed to predict general (any) criminal recidivism were strong predictors of general recidivism among sexual offenders. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson -and- Kelly Morton-Bourgon, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada
Dynamic Predictors Of Sexual Recidivism, 1998-1
1998-1
Executive Summary
Given the importance of effective community supervision of sexual offenders, there is surprisingly little research indicating when sexual offenders are likely to re-offend. In the present study, information on dynamic (changeable) risk factors was collected through interviews with community supervision officers and file reviews of 208 sexual offense recidivists and 201 non-recidivists. The sexual offenders were selected from all regions of the Correctional Service of Canada and from all provinces (except P.E.I.). The recidivists had committed a new sexual offense while on some form of community supervision (probation, parole, mandatory supervision). The non-recidivists were matched to the recidivists on victim type, criminal history, geographical region and jurisdiction. The study examined approximately equal numbers of rapists, boy-victim child molesters and girl-victim child molesters.
Despite efforts to match the recidivistic and non-recidivistic groups, some differences remained in static, historical variables. In comparison to the non-recidivists, the recidivists had a greater history of sexual deviance, such as diverse types of victims, stranger victims, juvenile offenses and paraphilias (e.g., exhibitionism, cross-dressing). As well, the recidivists showed more signs of an antisocial lifestyle than did the non-recidivists. The recidivists were more likely to meet criteria for antisocial personality, psychopathy (PCL-R), and had higher scores on objective risk scales (SIR and VRAG).
Officer interviews indicated that the recidivists displayed more problems while on supervision than did the non-recidivists. In particular, the recidivists 1 were generally considered to have poor social supports, attitudes tolerant of sexual assault, antisocial behaviour, poor self-management strategies and difficulties cooperating with supervision. The overall mood of the recidivists and non-recidivists was similar, but the recidivists showed increased anger and subjective distress just prior to re-offending.
More of the recidivists than the non-recidivists were using sex drive reducing medications (anti-androgens). A possible explanation is that officers insisted on medication only for the most severe cases. The study was not intended to test the efficacy of hormonal treatments; nevertheless, officers should be aware that sexual offenders still present considerable risk for sexual offense recidivism after the introduction of sex drive reducing medication.
The offenders’ attitudes and behaviour during supervision continued to be strongly associated with recidivism even after controlling for pre-existing differences in static risk factors (overall R = .60, p < .001). The dynamic factors identified in the interview data were reflected (to a lesser extent) in the officers' contemporaneous case notes, which suggests that the interview findings cannot be completely attributed to retrospective recall bias.
Carefully monitoring the risk indicators identified in this study should help officers to provide graduated and responsive interventions well before the point of no return. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson -and- Andrew Harris, Corrections Research, Department of the Solicitor General Canada
Report on Safety Issues Raised By Living Arrangements for and Locations of Sex Offenders in the Community
Crime and Justice in Colorado 2006 .
March 15, 2004
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Colorado Division of Criminal Justice, Office of Domestic Violence and Sex Offender Management, conducted research on the safety issues raised by living arrangements of sex offenders in the community. This research primarily focused on two questions:
(1) Do the living arrangements of sex offenders, including Shared Living Arrangements, have an impact on community safety?
(2) Do the location of sex offender residences, specifically in proximity to schools and childcare centers, have an impact on community safety?
To answer these questions, probation files were reviewed on both a random sample of sex offenders under probation supervision in the Denver metropolitan area and an all-inclusive sample of sex offenders under probation supervision in the Denver metropolitan area living in a Shared Living Arrangement (n = 130 for the combined sample). Data were extracted from the first 15 months of supervision for the sex offenders selected for this study.
The findings and subsequent recommendations are presented below. ..more.. by Colorado Department of Public Safety, Division of Criminal Justice, Sex Offender Management Board
Sexual Assault of Young Children as Reported to Law Enforcement: Victim, Incident, and Offender Characteristics
July 2000, NCJ 182990:
Introduction
To law enforcement and the public, sexual assaults, and especially the sexual assaults of young children, are a major social concern. Caretakers worry about such attacks when their children are out of sight. Law enforcement, child protective services, and legislatures work to reduce the incidence of these crimes. However, while a few highly publicized incidents are engraved in the public’s consciousness, there is little empirically-based information on these crimes. Until recently, law enforcement and policymakers had few hard facts on which to base their response to these crimes, their victims, and their offenders.
The only existing national data collection effort that explored the incidence of sexual assault ignored crimes against young victims. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimated there were 197,000 incidents of forcible rape and 110,000 incidents of other sexual assault in the United States in 1996 involving victims ages 12 or above (Ringel, 1997). Victims reported that a third (31%) of these sexual assaults (or 94,000 victimizations) were reported to law enforcement agencies. However, for 1996, the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) estimated that there were 96,000 forcible rapes alone reported to law enforcement agencies (FBI, 1997). The UCR does not capture reported crime information on other sexual assaults such as forcible sodomy, sexual assault with an object, and forcible fondling.
However, it can be assumed from their relative volume in the NCVS that tens of thousands of sexual assaults other than forcible rape came to the attention of law enforcement in 1996. The large difference between the NCVS and the UCR estimates may reflect differences in the two data collection methods; or, if both estimates are valid, they indicate that many victims of sexual assault are youth under age 12. Beyond their volume, little is known about the victims, their offenders, and other characteristics of these crimes.
However, the UCR’s relatively new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) has the potential to yield detailed descriptions of sexual assaults reported by participating law enforcement agencies. NIBRS captures a wide range of information on each incident of sexual assault reported to law enforcement. This information includes demographic information on all victims; the levels of victim injury; victims’ perceptions of offenders’ ages, gender, race, and Hispanic ethnicity; and the victim-offender relationships. NIBRS also collects information on all offenses involved in the incident; the types of weapons used; the locations of the incident, the dates and times of the incident; the demographics of arrestees (if any); and the methods of clearance, such as arrest or victim refusal to cooperate with the investigation.
To some, the value of the NIBRS data is limited by the small and non-scientific sample of contributing law enforcement agencies. From 1991 through 1996 the sample of reporting agencies increased; however, even the reporting agencies in the 1996 sample were responsible for less than 10% of the U.S. population. While there is no way to assess the national representativeness of the sample, the number of sexual assault victimizations in the NIBRS sample is very large. Therefore, accepting the inherent qualifications associated with any analysis of NIBRS data, the sheer number of reports and the detailed information available on each crime provides researchers and policymakers with a unique opportunity to study the sexual assaults of young children. ..more.. by Howard N. Snyder, Ph.D., National Center for Juvenile Justice
Sex Offenses and Offenders: An Analysis of Data on Rape and Sexual Assault
February 1997, NCJ-163392:
Foreword
This report draws on more than two dozen statistical datasets maintained by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the Uniform Crime Reporting program of the FBI to provide a comprehensive overview of current knowledge about the incidence and prevalence of violent victimization by sexual assault, the response of the justice system to such crimes, and the characteristics of those who prey on victims of all ages by committing sexual assault or rape.
This report reinforces a striking observation in recent studies about crimes involving rape and sexual assault: In a high percentage of cases, the victims are children. In self-reported victimization surveys of the public age 12 and older, teenagers report the highest per capita rates of exposure to rape and sexual assault. Data drawn from police-recorded incidents of rape in three States revealed that 44% of rape victims were under the age of 18. The self-reports of convicted rape and sexual assault offenders serving time in State prisons indicate that two-thirds of such offenders had victims under the age of 18, and 58% of those ¾ or nearly 4 in 10 imprisoned violent sex offenders ¾ said their victims were age 12 or younger.
Though the vast majority of violent sex offending involves males assaulting female victims, females account for a small percentage of known offenders, and males account for a small percentage of victims. In a very small fraction of sexual assaults, victim and offender are of the same sex.
Victim and offender are likely to have had a prior relationship as family members, intimates, or acquaintances. Victims of rape and sexual assault report that in nearly 3 out of 4 incidents, the offender was not a stranger. Based on police-recorded incident data, in 90% of the rapes of children younger than 12, the child knew the offender; twothirds of the victims 18 to 29 years old had a prior relationship with the rapist.
The FBI’s UCR arrest data, as well as court conviction data and prison admissions data, all point to a sex offender who is older than other violent offenders, generally in his early thirties, and more likely to be white than other violent offenders ¾ characteristics that match the information obtained from victims who describe the offender to interviewers in the National Crime Victimization Survey.
This report was prepared as background information for the Assistant Attorney General’s 1996 National Summit Promoting Public Safety Through the Effective Management of Sex Offenders in the Community.
It presents a thorough analysis and compilation of the currently available national data, but we anticipate that even more will be learned in the coming years as BJS assembles data on rape and sexual assault from the redesigned National Crime Victimization Survey and surveys of felony probationers, local jail inmates, and State and Federal prison inmates. ..more.. by Lawrence A. Greenfeld, Statistician, Bureau of Justice Statistics
June 7, 2007
Evaluating and Improving Risk Assessment Schemes for Sexual Recidivism: A Long-Term Follow-Up of Convicted Sexual Offenders
March 2007 NCJ 217618:
This federally supported study sought to evaluate and to improve the decisionmaking algorithms that have been generated to assess risk in sexual offenders by evaluating the existing risk assessment measures in a sample of sexual offenders on whom long-term follow up were available.
Abstract: Highlights of the results were: (1) for the average predictability over all measures, the Bridgewater Observations sample (BOs) were better predicted than Bridgewater Treatments sample (BTs), despite a significantly lower recidivism rate; (2) the cross-temporal pattern of prediction differed between rapists and child molesters, with rapists being predicted better at shorter follow-up periods and child molesters better at longer intervals; (3) all actuarials showed moderate reliability and predictive accuracy with few significant differences; (4) five factors accounted for all of the predictive variance in the existing actuarials; (5) the Structured Risk Assessment (SRA) Needs Assessment consistently had the highest area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUCs) for the entire sample and for rapists and child molesters separately; (6) age was not found to constitute an important moderator for predicting outcome, and a complex relation among age at index offense, age at discharge, and outcome status emerged; and (7) promising additional subgroup specific predictors for child molesters and rapists were identified. Risk assessment plays a central role in the management of sexual offenders. The study assessed the comparative accuracy of the major risk instruments over time and over sub samples, explored their underlying factor structure, examined the accuracy of a new assessment protocol, the SRA Needs Assessment, and explored the potential for generating improved predictive instruments. To accomplish this, archival files from a prior study which followed 599 offenders referred to the Massachusetts Treatment Center (MTC) from 1959 and 1984 were used. The offenders were referred from both Bridgewater Treatment (BT) and Bridgewater Observation (BO). They were coded on the modern actuarials that have been developed since 1998 and on a new experimental measure, the SRA Needs Assessment. References and tables ..more.. by Raymond A. Knight Ph.D. -and- David Thornton Ph.D.
Link to full study
