Predictors of Sexual Recidivism: An Updated Meta-Analysis, 2004-02

2004-02

Abstract
This quantitative review examined the research evidence concerning recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders. A total of 95 different studies were examined, involving more than 31,000 sexual offenders and close to 2000 recidivism predictions. The results confirmed deviant sexual interests and antisocial orientation as important predictors of sexual recidivism. Antisocial orientation (e.g., unstable lifestyle, history of rule violation) was a particularly important predictor of violent non-sexual recidivism and general recidivism. The study also identified a number of new predictor variables, some of which have the potential of being useful targets for intervention (e.g., sexual preoccupations, conflicts in intimate relationships, emotional identification with children, hostility). Actuarial risk instruments were consistently more accurate than unguided clinical opinion in predicting sexual, violent nonsexual and general recidivism. For the prediction of sexual recidivism, there were no significant differences in the predictive accuracy of the various actuarial measures (e.g., SORAG, Static -99). Actuarial measures designed to predict general (any) criminal recidivism were strong predictors of general recidivism among sexual offenders. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson -and- Kelly Morton-Bourgon, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada