December 2, 2015
Lawmakers weighing sex offender bills urged to consider supports, stigmas
A host of bills dealing with sex offender registration encountered pushback Tuesday from advocates and offenders who urged lawmakers to consider whether the measures were meant to prevent recidivism or to serve as additional punishments.
BOSTON - A host of bills dealing with sex offender registration encountered pushback Tuesday from advocates and offenders who urged lawmakers to consider whether the measures were meant to prevent recidivism or to serve as additional punishments.
Legislation now before the Joint Committee on the Judiciary includes measures that would establish restrictions on where certain sex offenders can live or spend time, and other proposals that would make more information available about some offenders.
New Start Project founder Tony Smith, whose organization helps people who have been incarcerated, spoke against a bill (H 1407) that would allow victims to request and obtain the home, work and school addresses of the person who committed a sex offense against them.
Smith said that some sex offenders who participate in his program have expressed fears of retaliation by victims' families. He called on lawmakers to focus on "risk prevention" and on ensuring any new legislation would actually promote public safety.
"How do we provide opportunities for people who come home, whatever classification they have as it relates to sex offenses, how do we create opportunities for them to succeed as well? Many people in our program worked tirelessly hard to reintegrate. Their number one problem is overcoming stigma and shame that follows them after incarceration," he said.
Lawmakers who sponsored the bills dealing with sex offenders said they were trying to update laws to provide law enforcement with new tools.
Rep. Tackey Chan, a Quincy Democrat, filed a bill that would require sex offenders to include email addresses and social media accounts with their registration (H 1235). He said that Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Florida, Colorado, Louisiana have passed similar laws.
"The bill does not create new penalties, the bill does not create new people to include as sex offenders," Chan said. "It only requires the current application and forms to add one additional piece of information."
After a homeless Level 3 sex offender began spending time around parks and beaches in Yarmouth last year, Rep. Brian Mannal said he had been shocked to learn that behavior was not illegal. The Barnstable Democrat put forward legislation (H 3445) that would ban certain registered sex offenders from locations including playgrounds, parks, libraries, schools, youth camps, mini golf courses, go-cart tracks, trampoline parks, batting cages.
"Basically, what we're seeking to do is create child safety zones -- which are places where children are known to congregate -- and for the specific purpose of not allowing pedophiles, level three sex offenders who have committed acts of abuse towards children, to be able to loiter and engage with people who potentially fit in with their threats," Mannal said.
Paul Shannon, founder of the Cambridge-based group Reform Sex Offender Laws, said there is no evidence linking proximity to "child-dense areas" to sexual recidivism. He said that what is most effective at keeping sex offenders from repeating their crimes is access to a steady job, support system and place to live. ..Continued.. by Katie Lannan, State House News Service
June 29, 2010
The Sentencing Project Unveils New Recidivism
6-29-2010 National:
The Sentencing Project is pleased to announce the publication of a first–of-its-kind comprehensive database, "State Recidivism Studies." The database provides references for 99 recidivism studies conducted between 1995-2009 in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
These studies have been produced by a variety of agencies, including departments of corrections, sentencing commissions, statistical analysis centers, and universities. The studies address issues including juvenile/adult status, race, gender, offense type, program intervention, and many others, and thus offer insights into the variety of factors that may affect recidivism outcomes.
Because of the diversity among the studies in methodology and definitions of recidivism, the measurements of recidivism rates are not necessarily comparable across jurisdictions. Overall, though, the studies provide insight into the variety of factors that affect program success for people sentenced to incarceration or community supervision. See ..State Recidivism Studies (PDF)..
July 1, 2009
A Lesson in Recidivism Research
This snippet points out just two of the many ways alleged study outcomes can be manipulated to give the appearance of whatever the speaker wants to support: LOW or HIGH recidivism, it depends on who is citing the study and what their chosen focus is. Our thanks to Crime and Consequences for this insight.
7-1-2009 National:
Recidivism research is a difficult business. It's not easy obtaining data and following offenders over time. Deciding what the outcome variables should be and how they should be measured is notoriously tricky. Thus, it is hardly surprising when one study suggests a low recidivism rate for certain offenders while others signal much higher rates. But when a study suggests a zero rate of recidivism, that's something worth looking at carefully.
This study is not new, but it's frequently cited by those who wish to suggest that recidivism rates among juvenile sex offenders can be low - very low. Rarely do those who cite to it, however, mention that in that study the authors followed only 10 adolescent sex offenders, for only 6 months, and relied on self-report as the sole measure of recidivism. The authors probably never intended their study to stand for the proposition that sex offender recidivism can be in the zero range, but alas, that is what it has become.
The devil really is in the details. ..Source.. by Steve Erickson
June 15, 2009
NH- Slow Justice is no justice
6-15-2009 New Hampshire:
Justice served? Not even close.
A 43-year-old convicted rapist who served 22 years in prison for his crime is back in jail again following charges that he assaulted a woman at his Portsmouth apartment. The alleged assault took place while Charles Paul was free on bail on other charges. He was arrested on June 3.
Last week, Rockingham County Attorney Jim Reams took the unusual step of going public in questioning the judicial wisdom of the judge who ordered Paul freed on bail that included personal recognizance.
Reams is not the only one who should be raising his eyebrows over the action of Superior Court Judge Tina Nadeau. It is something to which attention should be given by the state's entire law enforcement community, judges and court administrators. It is something that should arouse the passions of people interested in justice for victims and the state's population as a whole.
While Reams stopped short of criticizing Nadeau as having made a mistake, his frustration was evident last week when said the court is failing to keep up with repeat offenders.
"It's an indication of how the whole criminal justice system is slowing down and unraveling. It shouldn't take between mid-April and July to get someone sentenced," said the veteran county attorney. Reams wanted the deferred sentence imposed immediately and Assistant County Attorney William Pate asked the judge to do so, but an audio recording of the hearing shows Nadeau wanted to wait to act on the request until July 1 at a sentencing hearing on his April 13 conviction.
The delay is inconsistent with the defendant's criminal record and the charges pending against him.
Reams' position is far more understanding of the situation and a just resolution than that of Nadeau.
"I think she thinks it makes her look in a better light ... we are baffled by it," said Reams. "We wanted him in jail as a result of (the April 13 conviction)" ... "his record is horrendous," said the Rockingham County Attorney.
Last week Judge Nadeau took the unusual step of requesting a written transcript when an assistant county attorney asked her to immediately impose a deferred sentence for Paul. The action is being seen by some people as a move by Nadeau to circle the wagons in preparation for a defense of her action in the case.
Judge Nadeau is assigned to the post of supervisory judge in the three-judge court that sits in Rockingham County.
Jim Reams speaking: Recidivism among sex offenders is high. A study by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, a division of the U.S. Department of Justice, released a study in 2008 which said sex offenders "were four times more likely to be arrested in for another sex crime after their release than non-sex offenders".
The study (http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/crimoff.htm#recidivism) also reported, "Of released sex offenders who allegedly committed another crime, 40 percent perpetrated the new offense within a year or less" of their release.
Oh how easy it is to misuse / misquote and/or misunderstand statistics:
Notice what Jim Reams picks to mention and what he fails to mention (quoted from his link):
-Within 3 years of release, 2.5% of released rapists were rearrested for another rape, and 1.2% of those who had served time for homicide were arrested for a new homicide.
-Sex offenders were less likely than non-sex offenders to be rearrested for any offense –– 43 percent of sex offenders versus 68 percent of non-sex offenders.
-Sex offenders were about four times more likely than non-sex offenders to be arrested for another sex crime after their discharge from prison –– 5.3 percent of sex offenders versus 1.3 percent of non-sex offenders.
What Jim Reams quoted is technically correct, but what he failed to quote is the explanation of the quote. The first thing to notice is that BOTH sex offenders released and non sex offenders released, committed sex crimes after release (5.3% -v- 1.3%); that is a critically important fact. Now because I catch many folks misquoting this study, I have created a chart to graphically show what they fail to tell folks, see the following:
U.S. Dep't of Justice Recidivism Statistics:
Sex offenders compared to non-sex offenders
Who will commit more new sex offenses within 3-years of being paroled, sex offenders -OR- non-sex offenders?
Non sex offenders commit more new sex offenses when paroled!
Recidivism Rates:
All released sex offenders -vs- non-sex offendersSource: "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994."
(NCJ 198281).
Released
(Paroled)Offender Type Paroled ReArrested for
New Sex Offense%/# of New Sex
Offenses by ParoleesConvicted of
New Sex Offense9,691 Sex Offenders 5.3% (517) 13% (1 every 2 days) 3.5% (339) 262,420 Non-Sex Offenders 1.3% (3,328) 87% (3 per day) .83% 2,179)** 272,111 All Offenders 1.4% (3,845) 100%
Construction of chart- DOJ Pg-24 states: Sex offenders compared to non-sex offenders: "The 15 States in this study released a total of 272,111 prisoners in 1994. The 9,691 released sex offenders made up less than 4% of that total. Of the remaining 262,420 non-sex offenders, 3,328 (1.3%) were rearrested for a new sex crime within 3 years." and "Based on official arrest records, 517 of the 9,691 released sex offenders (5.3%) were rearrested for a new sex crime within the first 3 years following their release (table 21)." and DOJ Pg-2 states: "Of the 9,691 released sex offenders, 3.5% (339 of the 9,691) were reconvicted for a sex crime within the 3-year followup period." **Calculated using same proportions between 517 and 339 for sex offenders.
Voice of Reason: eAdvocate ©, Copyright 2006 - All Rights Reserved
Finally, I am not advocating for/against Charles Paul, I am merely trying to set the record straight on recidivism rates quoted from this Dep't of Justice study. Clearly Jim Reams either does not understand this study, or has not really read and analyzed it because if he did he would know, he is wrong!
eAdvocate
QUESTION: Should the community be more wary of the released sex offender, OR, the released non sex offender? You decide....
Charles Paul was released from prison in the spring of 2008.
We trust judges in our state are paying some attention to such statistics and their trends in order to keep up with what is going on in our society.
The case of Charles Paul and the way it has been handled by the court in Rockingham County is something that deserves the attention of people throughout New Hampshire — and maybe beyond.
No matter the outcome on July 1, a special panel of judges should be convened to review the way this matter was handled; not one that will build a defensive wall for colleague, but one that will examine how justice and the people of New Hampshire can be better served by their courts. ..Source.. by Foster's Daily Democrat
April 4, 2009
FAILURE TO REGISTER: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF SEX OFFENSE RECIDIVISM
April 2009:
A new research paper from Dr. Levenson:
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
In 2006, the Adam Walsh Act was passed, lengthening registration periods, requiring more frequent updating of registrant information, and expanding the number of sex offenders to whom notification requirements apply. The Adam Walsh Act (AWA) also increased penalties for sex offenders who fail to comply with registration obligations. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between failure to register as a sex offender and subsequent recidivism. Since little is known about sex offender registration violators, our first goal was to describe the characteristics of a sample of sex offenders convicted of failing to register in South Carolina. Second, we sought to determine whether, as a group, sex offenders who failed to register differed significantly from compliant registrants on relevant risk variables. Third, we endeavored to identify factors predictive of failure to register (FTR). Finally, we evaluated the role of registration noncompliance in contributing to recidivism risk over time.
CONCLUSIONS
Results from this study do not support the supposition that sexual offenders who fail to register are more sexually dangerous than those who comply with registration requirements. Specifically, results indicated that approximately 10% of sex offenders had registry violations across an average follow-up period of about 6 years. Of those who failed to register, 11% also had a sexual recidivism charge, compared with 9% of compliant registrants. The presence of prior sexual offenses did not predict FTR, and FTR did not predict sexual recidivism. Consistent with other research, sex offenders are more likely to reoffend non-sexually than with a subsequent sex crime.
Sexual violence is a serious and complex problem requiring a comprehensive set of strategies to enhance public protection. Interventions based on research data are more likely to succeed in preventing sex crimes by targeting resources toward factors associated with reoffending. The current study indicates that sex offenders who fail to comply with registration are not more apt to reoffend sexually, but substantial resources are spent for enforcement, and, as required by the Adam Walsh Act, to incarcerate violators. We suggest that utilizing empirically derived risk assessment to identify highrisk predators, and assisting sex offenders to reintegrate successfully might contribute in more meaningful ways to public safety.
This report is a summary of a research article forthcoming in the peer-reviewed scientific journal Justice Quarterly.
Levenson, J. S., Letourneau, E., Armstrong, K., & Zgoba, K. (2009, in press). Failure to register as a Sex Offender: Is it associated with recidivism? Justice Quarterly.
September 8, 2008
Revisiting Department of Justice Recidivism Statistics and More Shocking Truths
9-8-2008 National:
Every so often someone dismisses a sex offender study on grounds that make no sense, today we have such a case. The sex offender study is about recidivism (of former sex offenders), and first time sex offenders (former non sex offenders), the study: "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994" (198281) published by the Department of Justice in November 2003. Follow highlighting of former sex offenders and former non sex offenders.
The claim:Now, on to relevant issues:
This study is no good because it doesn't address registered sex offenders and non sex offenders. Given it does address non sex offenders which I'll explain in a minute, I cannot see why it should address registered sex offenders. The reason is simple, the study includes newly released prisoners in 1994, followed for three years, and the majority of the states did not even have a registration requirement back then.
To the commenter below mentioning additional stats which the USDOJ could have used. Those stats are not relevant to prisoners released in 1994 and followed for three years (94, 95 and 96), nor would those stats change anything in this study. Should the commenter be thinking, the study should have addressed JUST THOSE REGISTERED AT THE TIME, please see "The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism, 2000, which found no difference in recidivism before or after the registry. If I am missing something please get back to me. I'm always open to new thoughts and corrections.
This is an excellent study because of who it covers (target subjects). That year there were 272,111 prisoners released from prison in 15 states (Arizona, Maryland, North Carolina, California, Michigan, Ohio, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Florida, New Jersey, Texas, Illinois, New York, and Virginia). Of the 272,111 prisoners 9,691 were former sex offenders and that represented 2/3rds of all released sex offenders in the nation that year. This study included ALL of them, and that makes this study unique.
Here is the breakdown of released prisoners(pg-7):
9,691 Sex Offenders Released
262,420 Other Offenders Released
272,111 Total Offenders Released
Those are KEY facts showing the study covers former sex offenders and former non sex offenders (others offenders). Anyone in prison for a crime other than a sex offense is a former non sex offender.
Who commits more sex crimes, former sex offenders -or- former non sex offenders?
First, a overall recidivism chart created from statistics in the study:

Now, most folks will claim, but sex offenders are 4 times more likely to commit a sex offense than a non sex offender after being released from prison. True, that is what the study says, but thats only PART of what the study says, see:
Rearrest for a new sex crime: Compared to non-sex offenders released from State prisons, released sex offenders were 4 times more likely to be rearrested for a sex crime. Within the first 3 years following their release from prison in 1994, 5.3% (517 of the 9,691) of released sex offenders were rearrested for a sex crime. The rate for the 262,420 released non-sex offenders was lower, 1.3% (3,328 of 262,420).(pg-7)
Now, notice the under lined portion, that talks about non sex offenders, those who were in prison for other offenses (former non sex offenders). REVELATION, former non sex offenders -after release- went on to commit first time sex offenses, thats a fact!
Statistics can play tricks on one's mind: Notice, 5.3% of the former sex offenders were rearrested for a new sex crime while only 1.3% of the former non sex offenders were rearrested for a sex offense. Sounds like the real bad guys are the former sex offenders, right? WRONG, lets change those percentages into real numbers (real sex crimes): 5.3% = 517 sex crimes, and, 1.3% = 3,328 sex crimes IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD! So, former sex offenders committed 517 sex crimes -and- former non sex offenders committed 3,328 sex crimes. Study that, let it sink in, then look at the chart above. Shocking enough?
Who should society be more concerned about?
The laws targeting former sex offenders MAY prevent some recidivism, but lawmakers have totally ignored the group causing the majority of NEW sex crimes by former prison inmates. Now, for every ONE sex crime committed by a former sex offender, there are SIX sex crimes committed by former non sex offenders.
That folks is something lawmakers simply ignore, and focus on former sex offenders. Now, consider this, all those NEW sex crimes committed by former non sex offenders, is causing further public and lawmaker hysteria of former sex offenders!
What distinguishes this study from many other recidivism studies?
Sex offender recidivism studies can be misleading because often a study will look at a SPECIFIC SUB GROUP of sex offenders, and ignore other sub groups. Frequently, a speaker will latch on to such a study and claim it pertains to ALL sex offenders, and in so doing distorts the truth.
This DOJ study FIRST looks at ALL sex offenders released and provides recidivism statistics that way. So, remember, when discussing ALL SEX OFFENDERS then the overall rates can be used and will be correct.
Now Subgroups: When a study looks at "rapists" or "child molesters" or "pedophiles" or "adult molesters" or "statutory rapists" or "Romeo and Juliet" cases, or "Lolita" cases, or "stranger" cases, or just high profile cases, or other sub groupings of sex offenders, then they are looking for something about that sub group.
Yes, these are different groupings of sex offenders, and when subgroups are addressed. it EXCLUDES all other sub groups of sex offenders. This is done to generate specific stats which is normal if the researcher has a reason to do so, but remember, sub group recidivism rates CANNOT be used when speaking of ALL SEX OFFENDERS.
How are subgroups formed?
Well, the facts of the crime dictates what subgroup an offender will fall into, and an offender can fall into more than one subgroup.
Scenario-1: Suppose a offender commits a sex crime against a minor which the offender does not know. The offender would be a "child molester" and also be grouped as a "stranger" case. If the offender knew the victim or was part of the daily life of the victim, then it would not be a "stranger" case
Scenario-2: Suppose John and Mary are dating and having sex, Mary is a minor and John turns 18. This is tricky because both before and after John turns 18 he is a "child molester" according to the law, because Mary cannot give consent under the law. Now this is also what is known as a "Romeo & Juliet" case hence different subgroups.
Scenario-3: Suppose Sam is attracted to young children and has downloaded hundreds of pictures of child pornography, given those facts he would be a "pedophile." However, suppose Peter, also attracted to children, but has been going to a psychiatrist and has been diagnosed as suffering from "pedophilia" using the DSM-IV (Code 302.2) which is described in the DSM-IV) but has not committed any offense against a child. Is he a "pedophile," yes. Now, suppose George a RSO having committed ONE sex crime against a child and lives down the street from you. Is he a "pedophile," no. George's case does not show facts to indicate he is a "pedophile." i.e., a preference for children (one time conviction, without additional facts, fails to show a preference).
A problem with the dictionary definitions of pedophile: Some are misleading and define "pedophile" as one who prefers sex with children -and others- as one who commits a sex crime with a child (lacking "preference" this may be incorrect).
Failing to include some context of "preference" (which supports the DSM-IV definition), -or- in the case of child pornography above which shows a preference, i.e., downloaded many pictures of child porn. Pedophiles prefer!
Now, is John (the one who was dating Mary above) a pedophile? Given the above facts, no, he is a person in a dating relationship and ab scent facts showing a improper preference for children, he is not a pedophile. So before labeling someone a "pedophile" you need to know facts of the case, lest you be wrong. With all that said, "pedophiles" are one subgroup of sex offenders.
Scenario-4: Now, suppose Luke is attracted to and prefers girls who are about 14-17, he is known as a "EPHEBOPHILE: An adult affected with ephebophilia (age attraction 14-17)." Age is where we get into a problem because "children" in most of today's laws means someone under 18, but in the psych world pedophiles are mostly associated with prepubescent children. This point with be argued for years to come and never settled one way or the other; I'll let it rest here.
I could go on and on with subgroups of sex offenders but I need to get back to the study.
Does the DOJ Study Address ANY subgroups of sex offenders?
Yes, the DOJ addressed subgroups which were important to the public. Before looking at which subgroups a note is important: No other study -bar none- has put the subjects under the microscope and analyzed them, six ways to Sunday as they say, as this study has. That is why this study has more value than any other study at this time.
The DOJ analyzed offenders' crimes and found they fall into the following subgroups (remember, some offenders -based on the facts of their crime- may fall into more than one subgroup, so the sum of the following will be greater than 9,691, total released):
3,115 were rapists;
6,576 were sexual assaulter;
4,295 were child molesters;
443 were statutory rapists.
Now I am going to focus on one subgroup, child molesters, and my reason is, because ALL new laws governing sex offenders nationally, is driven by the cry of "to protect children." Again, from statistics provided in the DOJ study the following chart was compiled to pull together recidivism rates as to children:

This chart shows us that 2.2% of all sex offenders released from prison, and followed for 3 years, went on to be rearrested for a new sex crime against a child. The chart shows the breakdown of that number.
Now, remember my earlier comment "Who should society be more concerned about?", released sex offenders -or- released non sex offenders. The DOJ found that released non sex offenders go on to commmit MORE NEW SEX OFFENSES than released sex offenders.
Well, get ready top be shocked again, released non sex offenders go on to commit approximately FIVE new sex offenses to every ONE committed by a released sex offender AGAINST A CHILD. See the chart, released sex offenders committed 213 new sex crimes against children, BUT, released non sex offenders committed 1,042 in the same time period (3 years).
A fact revealed by the Department of Justice which lawmakers are aware of and do nothing about, non sex offenders are more dangerous to the community!
Residency type laws: Laws prohibiting residing, loitering, etc., within xx feet of schools, playgrounds, parks, day cares, churches and other places where children MIGHT congregate, are targeted to the group LEAST LIKELY to commit a crime against a child. Lawmakers permit other released offenders to reside and enter these areas, and do nothing about them. Why are lawmakers so blind?
Internet Restrictions: Lawmakers are passing laws to gather up e-mail addresses and other Internet IDs and some even go after the paswords. Again, the cry is to protect children! Which released offender is MOST LIKELY to commit a crime against a child? Right, non sex offenders, the statistics prove that. Lawmakers still do nothing with respect to released non sex offenders and Internet restrictions. Again, why are lawmakers so blind?
Parks: Lawmakers are pasing laws and ordinances to prohibit all sex offenders from entering parks. Which released offender is MOST LIKELY to commit a crime against a child? Right, non sex offenders, the statistics prove that. Lawmakers still do nothing with respect to released non sex offenders and parks. Again, why are lawmakers so blind?
So my question is simple, if non sex offenders released from prison are causing 86.6% of all new sex offenses, and, 83% of all new sex crimes against children, why do lawmakers do nothing about this? The evidence is in lawmakers hands, they ignore it. Why?
I'll take an answer from anyone, that is a logical answer.
eAdvocate
March 21, 2008
TX- Council on Sex Offender Treatment
July 2005
Incarceration in a penal institution does not deter repeat sexually violent predators or the proliferation of sexual violence. Decades of research across a broad spectrum of issues show that punishment merely suppresses deviant behavior and does not eradicate it (Cole, Cory, McKenzie, and Meyer, 1997). With this in mind, over the past 30 years an enormous amount of research has shown relevant information regarding the assessment, treatment, and containment of sex offenders, which in turn has enhanced public safety. There have been considerable advances in our knowledge about the characteristics of effective treatment programs (Bonta, 2001). The purpose of treatment is to modify both cognitive distortions and deviant sexual behavior to reduce the risk of re-offending. Research and clinical reports have begun to demonstrate that a number of treatment methods are effective in modifying some forms of sexual deviance. The following are studies that show the effectiveness of treatment:
In a 2004 study of 31,216 sex offenders, Hanson observed on average that the sexual recidivism rate was 13%, violent non-sexual recidivism at 14%, and general recidivism at 36.9%
In 2000 Hanson found that the overall effect of treatment demonstrated reductions in both sexual recidivism (10% of the treated subjects to 17% of untreated) and general recidivism (32% for treated subjects to 51% of untreated subjects).
In the December 2002 publication of Psychiatry News, an article titled “Sex Offender Recidivism Rates Below Expectations: A 15 Year Prospective Study” concluded that more than eighty percent (80%) of sex offenders who have undergone treatment do not re-offend within fifteen (15) years. The study of 626 individuals was reported at the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law. The study found that sex offenders who were compliant with treatment were less likely to re-offend. Approximately forty percent (40%) of these individuals received anti-androgenic drugs in order to lessen their sex drive.
Child molesters who participated in a cognitive behavioral treatment program had fewer sexual re-arrests than the sex offenders who did not receive any treatment (13.2% vs. 57.1%, respectively). Both groups were followed for 11 years. The recidivism data was obtained by official sources and self-reports. Treated exhibitionist were reconvicted or charged with a sexual offense less than the untreated exhibitionist (23.6% v. 57.1%, respectively) (Lane, Council, 2003).
Recidivism rates for sex offenders do decrease with proper treatment. A meta-analytic study showed that treated sex offenders recidivated at a rate of 19% (Hall, 1995).
Treated offenders are more likely to make emotional and psychological restitution for the offender's deviant behavior and be available to contribute to the victim's treatment process.
When treatment programs are compared with criminal justice sanctions, the findings show treatment is more likely to reduce recidivism. Even detailed analyses of types of sanctions show no one particular sanction as significantly effective in reducing recidivism. If we are to enhance community safety, offender rehabilitation programs that follow the principles of effective treatment are most likely to meet with success (Bonta, 1997-2001). ..more.. by Texas DOC
November 28, 2007
The effects of punishment on recidivism
May 2002
Question
Does punishment of offenders reduce their re-offending?
Background
In the mid-1970s, there was a noticeable shift in criminal justice policy in the United States, and less markedly in Canada. Emphasis was directed away from offender rehabilitation programming toward punishment in order to control recidivistic crime. The use of incarceration increased substantially in many jurisdictions and sentences of imprisonment became longer. In addition to the increased use of incarceration, the last 25 years saw an explosion in the use of intermediate sanctions.
Intermediate sanctions represent a range of punishments falling between traditional probation and imprisonment. They include intensive probation supervision, electronic monitoring, boot camps and short periods of incarceration followed by intensive surveillance in the community ("shock incarceration"). Underlying these punitive approaches to criminal behaviour is the belief that criminal justice sanctions will deter offenders from re-offending.
Method
A meta-analytic review of the literature on the effects of criminal justice sanctions on recidivism was conducted. Meta-analysis provides a quantitative synthesis of the research literature and this method is widely regarded as superior to the more traditional narrative literature review.
The literature search identified 111 studies that examined the association between various criminal justice punishments and recidivism. Over 442,000 offenders were involved in these studies. The review included studies of imprisonment and intermediate sanctions. Noteworthy in the review were analyses of the findings with different types of offenders (e.g., juveniles, women, minorities).
Answer
The overall findings showed that harsher criminal justice sanctions had no deterrent effect on recidivism. On the contrary, punishment produced a slight (3%) increase in recidivism. These findings were consistent across subgroups of offenders (adult/youth, male/female, white/minority).
Compared to community sanctions, imprisonment was associated with an increase in recidivism. Further analysis of the incarceration studies found that longer sentences were associated with higher recidivism rates. Short sentences (less than six months) had no effect on recidivism but sentences of more than two years had an average increase in recidivism of seven per cent.
Intermediate sanctions demonstrated no relationship with recidivism. This category included studies of intensive supervision, fines, boot camps, electronic monitoring, scared straight, drug testing and restitution. Once again, no differential effects were found with respect to age group, gender and race.
Policy implications
Criminal justice policies that are based on the belief that "getting tough" on crime will reduce recidivism are without empirical support. Imprisonment and other criminal justice sanctions should be used for purposes other than reducing re-offending (e.g., incapacitation of dangerous offenders, denunciation of prohibited behaviour).
The lack of suppression effects across different offender groups indicates that applying sanctions selectively to specific groups is without merit. For example, imprisonment and intermediate sanctions were no more effective in reducing recidivism among youthful offenders than with adult offenders.
The ineffectiveness of punishment strategies to reduce recidivism further strengthens the need to direct resources to alternative approaches that are supported by evidence. Research based offender rehabilitation programs offer such a viable alternative for reducing recidivism. ..more..
Source
Smith, P., Goggin, C., & Gendreau, P. (2002). The effects of prison sentences and intermediate sanctions on recidivism: General effects and individual differences. (User Report 2002-01). Ottawa: Solicitor General Canada
September 16, 2007
Evaluating Community Sex Offender Treatment Programs: A 12-Year Follow-Up of 724 Offenders
April 2004 Canada
Abstract
Although some studies suggest positive effects of treatment for sexual offenders, most studies have been hampered by the unknown influence of selective attrition (e.g., volunteers and drop-outs). In the 1980s, the Correctional Service of Canada began to require weekly community treatment sessions for all sex offenders released in the Pacific Region. This policy change provided a unique opportunity for comparing an unselected cohort of treated sex offenders (n = 403) to an untreated cohort (n = 321) released in earlier years. After an average 12-year follow-up period, no differences were observed in the rates of sexual (21.1% vs 21.8%), violent (42.9% vs. 44.5%) or general (any) recidivism (56.6% vs 60.4%) for treated and untreated groups, respectively. The outcome remained comparable after controlling for length of follow-up, year of release, age, and seven static risk factors coded from official criminal history records. Retrospective ratings of the treatment quality also showed no relationship to observed recidivism rates. The static risk factors coded in the current study accounted for considerable variance in recidivism and could easily be used to improve statistical controls in future evaluations. ..more.. by Hanson, R. K., Broom, I., & Stephenson, M. (2004). Evaluating community sex offender treatment programs: A 12-year follow-up of 724 offenders. Canadian Journal of Behavioral Science, 2, 87-96.
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Providing treatment for sexual offenders is controversial. Narrative reviews all stress the weakness of existing studies (Furby, Weinrott, & Blackshaw, 1989; General Accounting Office, 1996; MacKenzie & Hickman, 1998), precluding strong conclusions regarding program effectiveness. The central problem concerns potential differences between the treatment and comparison groups. The standard method for minimizing differences is to randomly assign offenders to treatment and no-treatment groups; such designs, however, are difficult to implement and sustain in criminal justice settings. On average, the observed sexual recidivism rate for untreated sex offenders is approximately 15% after 5 years and 20% after 10 years (Hanson & Bussiere, 1998; Hanson & Thornton, 2000). When long follow-up periods are required, there is ample opportunity for the research design to be corrupted (e.g., "untreated" offenders receive treatment, administrative support collapses). Consequently, most sex offender treatment outcome studies were not initially designed as such; instead, they have taken advantage of "natural experiments."
The following examples illustrate the challenges faced when comparison groups are not randomly assigned. One of the early influential studies was Marshall and Barbaree's (1988) evaluation of their community treatment program for child molesters. All of the offenders were assessed at Marshall and Barbaree's clinic and all initially expressed interest in receiving treatment. The comparison group included those who subsequently decided against attending the program (e.g., lived too far away, incarcerated, no longer interested). Based on official criminal records as well as informal reports from police and child welfare agencies, the sexual recidivism rate was 13.2% for the treatment group (9/68) compared to 34.5% for the comparison group (20/58) after an average 3.5 years follow-up period. Because the offenders themselves made the decision whether to attend treatment or not, critics could argue that the differences in recidivism rates were due to pre-existing differences between the groups (e.g., lifestyle instability).
Another approach to examining treatment effects is to compare offenders released before and after the implementation of a treatment program. For example, Proctor (1996) used a cohort design that compared all the sex offenders (rapists, exhibitionists, child molesters) who started a community treatment program between 1989 and 1992 with a matched group from the same jurisdiction released between 1986 and 1989 when no treatment was available. After a fixed 5-year follow-up period (the same for both groups), the sexual reconviction rate was 5.6% for the treatment group (3/54) compared to 13.0% (7/54) for the comparison group. The difference was not statistically significant.
Proctor's (1996) study is among the better studies of treatment outcome with sexual offenders. A common problem with his study, and many similar studies, is that little information was provided concerning the screening processes by which the treatment group was selected from all potential candidates. Consequently, the "unscreened" comparison group would be expected to contain offenders who would be unable to receive treatment due to factors such as language difficulties, major mental illness, cognitive impairment, or lack of motivation. Another problem with cohort designs is that there can be systematic differences in the criminal justice response to sex offenders during different years (Friendship & Thornton, 2001).
Researchers attempt to address the threat of preexisting group differences through matching or posthoc statistical controls. Exact matching on more than two variables is difficult, and often fails in practise (Hanson & Nicholaichuk, 2000; Proctor, 1996). Posthoc statistical controls are useful, but only provide limited protection because there could always be unmeasured variables that systematically vary across groups. Statistical controls are most persuasive when they consider a wide range of variables to be related to recidivism, which is rarely observed in the existing recidivism studies.
In the absence of strong evidence, narrative reviewers have come to contradictory conclusions concerning the effectiveness of sex offender treatment effectiveness (e.g., Furby et al., 1989; Harris, Rice, & Quinsey, 1998; Polizzi, MacKenzie, & Hickman, 1999). Meta-analytic reviews (Gallagher, Wilson, Hirshfield, Coggeshall, & MacKenzie, 1999; Hall, 1995; Hanson et al., 2002) offer a number of advantages over the earlier qualitative, narrative reviews. By explicitly defining the criteria upon which the studies are aggregated, reviewers can transform their subjective impressions into hypotheses open to empirical scrutiny. As well, given that single studies typically lack the statistical power to detect small effects, many apparent inconsistencies can often be attributed to the chance fluctuations expected among studies with varying sample sizes (Rosenthal & DiMatteo, 2000).
Hall's (1995) meta-analysis included 12 studies that appeared after Furby et al.'s (1989) narrative review. In contrast to earlier reviews, Hall only considered studies that compared a treatment group to a comparison group. Hall reported a small, positive treatment effect, with the most effective treatment being cognitive-behavioural and hormonal. One major limitation of this study was that the observed treatment effect was mainly derived from comparisons between treatment completers and noncompleters (Hall). Given that men who fail to complete treatment are younger, less educated, and more antisocial than treatment completers (Wierzbicki & Pekarik, 1993), critics have interpreted Hall's study as further evidence of the stability of individual differences in recidivism potential (Harris et al., 1998).
In the next major meta-analysis, Gallagher et al. (1999) examined 22 studies (25 treatment comparisons). Gallagher et al., like Hall (1995), found a significant treatment effect for cognitive-behavioural treatment, but did not find an effect for hormonal treatments. Gallagher et al. focused on the best available studies, but some of these studies had significant threats to validity. For example, some of the studies involved comparisons between treatment completers and treatment drop-outs, and others were preliminary reports contradicted by later versions.
The first report of the Collaborative Data Project (Hanson et al., 2002) examined all the relevant studies in the Hall (1995) and Gallagher et al. (1999) reviews, as well as many recent studies (42 usable studies; 20 published, 22 unpublished). Hanson et al. focused on two questions: 1) To what extent could the different research designs (e.g., random assignment, incidental assignment, drop-outs versus completers) inform the evaluation of treatment effectiveness? and 2) What was the evidence for treatment effectiveness given the best available research designs and treatment programs that meet current standards? In response to these questions, Hanson et al. found that studies comparing treatment drop-outs to completers consistently found higher recidivism rates among the treatment drop-outs - regardless of the type of treatment received. Such a finding confirmed previous concerns that the results of drop-out studies are largely determined by selective attrition of high-risk cases rather than by differences in the amount of treatment received. Surprisingly, Hanson et al. did not find any difference in the sexual recidivism rates between offenders who explicitly refused treatment and those who volunteered.
There were too few random assignment studies (k = 3) to make meaningful conclusions about this method. Consequently, most of the results of the Hanson et al. (2002) meta-analysis were based on matching/incidental assignment studies. In incidental assignment studies (k = 17), the comparison groups were selected from offenders in which there were no a priori reasons to expect differences from the treatment group. Based on the random and incidental assignment studies, Hanson et al. found a significant difference between the older (pre-1980) forms of treatment and the current treatment programs for sexual offenders. Current treatments (cognitivebehavioural and systemic) were associated with significant reductions in sexual (17% to 10%) and general recidivism (51% to 32%) after 4-5 years of followup. No treatment effects were found for older treatments (purely behavioural, unspecified psychotherapy).
The Hanson et al. (2002) study said very little about which current forms of treatment are most effective. Sex offender treatment has evolved during the last decades based partly on theory (e.g., Laws, 1989), and partly on progress made in the "what works" literature for general offenders (e.g., Andrews et al., 1990; Losel, 1995). For general offenders, programs that target criminogenic needs are skills based, and are delivered in a manner consistent with the learning styles of the offenders, are most effective (Andrews et al.; Losel). There has been insufficient research to know whether the features important for treating general offenders are also important for treating sexual offenders. Recent treatment approaches for sexual offenders find stronger treatment effects than the earlier studies, but such changes could also be attributed to general changes in the offenders, the victims, or the criminal justice system during the past 20 years.
Reviews are only as good as the studies that go into them. Almost all of the studies in the sex offender treatment reviews were secondary analyses of natural experiments. Given the difficulties associated with random assignment studies, it is likely that our information about sexual offender treatment will be based on such natural experiments for many years to come. Consequently, it is important that researchers using "incidental" assignment studies carefully address potential threats to validity in order to contribute to knowledge of sexual offender treatment.
During the late 1980s, the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) implemented a policy of mandatory treatment for all sexual offenders released in the Pacific Region (British Columbia). The systematic introduction of the Community Sex Offender Program (CSOP) provided a unique opportunity to observe the potential effects of treatment with minimal concerns about selection biases (CS/RESORS, 1991). A limited amount of treatment had been offered to sex offenders in the Abbotsford Regional Treatment Centre since 1972. It was not until 1983 that sex offender specific group treatment was offered in the community (CS/RESORS, 1991). After the local CSOP start date, all sex offenders received weekly sex offender treatment until the end of their sentences (no attrition without re-incarceration). The initial comparison between offenders released before, and released after, the program suggested little overall differences in the recidivism rates (CS/RESORS, 1991). The CSOP treatment providers varied, however, in orientation. The most promising results were associated with well-managed, cognitive-behavioural programs that rigorously targeted sex offence specific issues (Stephenson, 1991).
The current research built on the original evaluation of the CSC community treatment program operated in the 1980s. The original CSOP evaluation was promising, but the follow-up period for the original study was too short (less than 4 years) to justify strong conclusions. In the present study, the followup period was extended to 12 years, with sufficient increases in the recidivism base rates/statistical power to detect moderate to small treatment effects (see discussion by Barbaree, 1997). The current study also improved upon the previous CSOP evaluation (and most other sex offender treatment evaluations) by controlling for several relevant risk factors, including time-at-risk, year of release, treatment quality, age, and seven static risk factors derived from official criminal records.
Method
Participants
Participants were the complete sample of male sexual offenders released between 1980 and 1992 onto community supervision in the Pacific Region of Correctional Service of Canada. Of the 870 cases in the original CSOP roster, valid follow-up information was obtained for 724 unique cases. Duplicate cases were excluded by randomly selecting one release date as the index offence. Also excluded were cases with release dates prior to 1980, cases with no identifiable sexual or violent offence linked to index date, and cases in which no criminal history records could be matched to the identifying information. All the men had received a sentence of two years or more for an explicitly sexual offence (contact offence against adults or children) or for an offence with a sexual motivation (e.g., sexually motivated assault). Participants were divided into two groups: treated (n = 403) and comparison (n = 321). Groups were assigned based on the year of implementation of the CSOP treatment programs. The comparison group included offenders whose release date occurred prior to the CSOP program implemented in their specific location (1980-1991). The treated group comprised offenders released after the implementation of the program (1981-1992). Treatment in this context refers only to the CSOP program; some offenders received treatment during, or prior to, incarceration, although the amount of other treatment was unknown.
As dictated by the research design, the comparison offenders were released, on average, about 1.5 years earlier than the treated offenders (see Table 1). The average age of the two groups was similar (37-38 years old). Unexpectedly, the treated offenders were at higher risk to re-offend than the comparison offenders, as indicated by the number of prior sexual offences.
Procedure
The CSOP treatment was provided by nine different therapists (psychologists) contracted by the Correctional Service of Canada. Table 2 provides an overview of these programs according to geographic region. The type of treatment delivered by each therapist was consistent within region, with the exception of Program D, in which the therapists adopted divergent approaches (psychodynamic versus cognitive-behavioural).
Treatment quality. Ratings of treatment quality (better or worse) were based on detailed information collected during the original evaluation conducted in 1990/1991 (CS/RESORS, 1991), as well as telephone interviews conducted in 2002 with five of the nine service providers. The original evaluations included reviews of program descriptions along with interviews of both therapists and offenders. The recently conducted telephone interviews, lasting approximately one hour, closely followed CSC Accreditation Criteria (CSC, 1998). These criteria are intended to identify programs that are likely to have an effect on reducing criminal recidivism:
a) the treatment must be based on an explicit, empirically based model of change;
b) the problems addressed in the program must be related to criminal behaviour (criminogenic needs);
c) the amount of treatment received must be sufficient;
d) the program must be delivered in a manner consistent with the learning styles of the offenders (responsivity);
e) the methods used for delivering treatment must be proven to be effective with offenders;
f) offenders should learn new skills;
g) there should be a continuity of care such that offenders have opportunity for follow-up practice and booster session; and
h) there must be mechanisms in place to monitor program integrity, protect against therapist burn-out, and prevent program drift.
The CSC Accreditation Criteria were closely modeled after those developed by Her Majesty's Prison Service (England and Wales), which were based on meta-analytic reviews of "what works" in correctional treatment for general offenders (Lipton, Thornton, McGuire, Porporino, & Hollin, 2000). In addition to the ratings based on the accreditation criteria, ratings of program quality were also provided in the original CSOP evaluation (CS/RESORS, 1991). Given that the international accreditation criteria were not available in 1991, the criteria used in the original evaluation were as follows: a) the treatment orientation must be predominantly cognitive-behavioural, but other techniques should be included; b) treatment should also address factors relating specifically to sexual offending such as deviant sexual drive, crime cycle, pathway to the offence, relapse-prevention, and awareness of factors increasing risk to re-offend, and c) the program must focus on countering denial. Both the original and the accreditation approaches sorted the providers into two groups ("better" and "worse") with relatively little difference within the groups. Comparison between the original and current ratings found that the group placement was identical for eight of the nine providers (Kappa = .78).
It is interesting to note, however, that none of the programs would have met current CSC Accreditation Criteria. The most common weaknesses concerned a lack of mechanisms for controlling program drift, and an insufficient dose of treatment (treatment time was confined to the time remaining in the offenders' sentences).
Recidivism
Recidivism information was based on official police records obtained in October 1999, from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) Canadian Police Information Centre (CPIC). The RCMP records contain all indictable convictions in Canada, and may contain summary convictions as well as charges that did not result in convictions. Three types of recidivism were examined: sexual, violent, and general (any) recidivism. Sexual recidivism was defined as any charge or conviction for a sexual offence committed after the index offence. Violent recidivism included any charge or conviction for nonsexually violent or sexual offences. Sexual and nonsexual violent offences are commonly combined in sexual offender research because it gives a policy-relevant measure of "serious" recidivism (e.g., Dempster & Hart, 2002). General criminal recidivism included a charge or conviction for a sexual, violent, or nonviolent offence. Parole revocations were not included unless they were accompanied by new charges.
Control Variables
Static risk instrument. Given observed differences in prior criminal history between the treatment and comparison groups (see Table 1), some method was required to control for pre-existing differences on static risk variables. Although it would be desirable to use an established risk instrument, the only information that was consistently available were the offenders' ages and criminal records. Consequently, a risk scale was created that included age and criminal history items from Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) and Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, 2003): age greater than 25, any conviction for noncontact sex offence, index conviction for nonsexual violence, any conviction for prior nonsexual violence, four or more prior sentencing dates, prior sex offence (using Static99 coding), any breach of conditional release, and less than 4 years at liberty prior to index conviction. All items were scored as "0" or "1" except for the number of prior sex offences (0-3). The maximum total score of the instrument was 10 (alpha = .62). This risk instrument was significantly related to sexual recidivism (AUC of .63), violent recidivism (AUC of .70), and general (any) recidivism (AUC of .74).
Release dates. Initial analyses searched for systematic differences in recidivism rates based on the year released. Given that the offenders released early were at liberty longer than offenders released later, these analyses used a fixed 7-year follow-up period (the minimum follow-up period). In other words, if an offender was released in 1990 and first re-offended in 1998, he would be considered a nonrecidivist because the follow-up period was more than 7 years. The year of release showed small negative correlations with recidivism among both the treatment and comparison groups. For the treatment group, the correlations were -.06, -.02, and -.08 with sexual, violent, and general recidivism, respectively. For the comparison group, the correlations with sexual, violent, and general recidivism were -.06, -.03, and -.12, respectively. Only for the comparison group was the correlation between any recidivism and year released statistically significant. Nevertheless, the direction of all correlations indicated that those released early were more likely to be identified as recidivists than those released later (a bias favouring the treatment group). Given that this pattern could be the result of selective attrition of old, inactive records (see Hanson & Nicholaichuk, 2000), year of release was included as a control variable.
Planned Analyses
This study comprised two main sets of comparisons. First, the overall effect of treatment was examined for the treatment and comparison groups. Second, the treated group was divided into those who received "better" and "worse" treatment. Group differences in recidivism rates were identified using proportional hazard survival analyses (Allison, 1984). Survival analysis has the advantage of controlling for time-at-risk, while examining how recidivism rates are influenced by categorical variables (e.g., treated or not) or continuous variables (e.g., risk scores). Proportional hazard analyses were conducted using the Cox Regression procedure from SPSS for Windows Version 10.0 (SPSS, 1999). In this study, offenders were censored if they did not re-offend or if they were lost to follow-up by being continuously incarcerated for another type of offence.
Similar to logistic regression, exponents of the Cox regression weights can be interpreted as odds ratios. For example, given relatively low base rates, an odds ratio of .50 would mean that the observed recidivism rate of the treatment group would be approximately half the recidivism rate of the comparison group (Fleiss, 1994). In our tables, odds ratios less than 1 indicate a positive effect of treatment, while odds ratios more than 1 indicate the treatment group did worse than the comparison group. When the 95% confidence interval contains 1.00, the differences between the groups should not be considered statistically significant. For continuous variables, the odds ratio represented the relative change in recidivism rates for each unit increase in the predictor variable.
Results
After an average follow-up time of 12.5 years (ranging from 7 to 14 years), the sexual, violent, and general recidivism rates were 21.4%, 43.6%, and 58.2%, respectively (total sample size of 724 for all analyses). Based on the complete follow-up period, the unadjusted sexual recidivism rates were 21.1% (85 out of 403) for offenders who received treatment compared to 21.8% (70 out of 321) for the comparison group (odds ratio of .96, 95% C. I. of .67-1.37; see Table 3). The violent (42.9% vs. 44.5%) and general (56.6% vs. 60.4%) recidivism rates were also similar for the treatment and comparison groups. None of these differences approached statistical significance. Given that the treatment group had a shorter followup time (M = 11.7 years, SD = 1.9) than the comparison group (M = 13.2 years, SD = 2.7), Table 3 also reports the recidivism rates after a fixed 7-year follow-up period. Again, none of the differences were statistically significant (sexual recidivism: odds ratio of 1.07, 95% C. I. of .70 to 1.61; violent recidivism: odds ratio of 1.14, 95% C. I. of .83 to 1.56; general recidivism: odds ratio of .98, 95% C. 1. of .73 to 1.32).
The next set of analyses (see Table 4) control for individual differences in static risk factors and for the year of release. Cox regressions were calculated for each outcome criteria (sexual, violent, any) using three predictor variables: static risk score (0-10), release date (year), and treatment condition (1 = CSOP; O = comparison). Risk was significantly related to all three recidivism criteria (p
The second set of comparisons examined the recidivism rates of those who received "better" and "worse" treatment. The overall recidivism rates for those who received better treatment were not significantly different than the rates for those who received worse treatment: unadjusted overall sexual recidivism rates of 18.5% versus 21.8%, violent recidivism rates of 35.9% versus 45.1%, and general recidivism rates of 54.3% and 57.5% for those who received better versus worse treatment, respectively (see Table 5). When Cox regression was used to control for time-atrisk, year of release, and static risk scores, the differences between the groups were still nonsignificant. Contrary to expectation, the direction of the effect now favoured those who received the "worse" treatment: The odds ratio was 1.23 for sexual recidivism, 1.03 for violent recidivism, and 1.34 for general recidivism (see Table 6).
Discussion
This study had two aims. The first aim was to evaluate a specific sex offender treatment program and thereby contribute to the cumulative knowledge of treatment effectiveness. The second aim was to demonstrate ways to improve upon previous cohort studies. The major virtue of the current study was the continuous, unselected sample - an opportunity rarely available. The other innovations, however, can be easily applied in cohort designs. Researchers can check whether the recidivism rates vary according to year released, and they can control for a substantial amount of the individual differences in risk level by using a simple scale coded from criminal history records.
The treatment program examined in this study did not appear to be effective in reducing recidivism. Although some analyses slightly favoured one group or the other, the differences between the treated and untreated groups was virtually zero after controlling for year of release, follow-up time, and static risk factors. The sample size was sufficiently large (300 to 400 in each group) that the 95% confidence intervals rule out any large effects of treatment in this sample. Given that the absolute differences in the 7-year recidivism rates was only + 0.8% for sexual recidivism, + 2.9%) for violent recidivism, and - 0.4% for general recidivism, it is reasonable to conclude that the overall program did not have any meaningful effect on recidivism rates. The average sexual recidivism rate (21 4% after 12.5 years) was similar to that found in samples of untreated sexual offenders (e.g., 22% after 10 years in Hanson & Thornton, 2000).
Examination of the individual treatment programs did not yield any significant differences in recidivism rates. Treatment programs that were judged to approximate contemporary standards had slightly better outcomes than the "worse" programs (median odds ratio of .87), but any apparent effects disappeared after controlling for risk (median odds ratio of 1.23). Limited confidence, however, can be placed in the judgments of treatment quality given that they were based on the summaries completed for the previous evaluation (CS/RESORS, 1991) and telephone interviews conducted more than 10 years later. Nevertheless, the information was sufficient to determine that none of the programs would meet CSC's current accreditation standards. The intensity of treatment was determined by sentence length, not the offenders' criminogenic needs. As well, none of the programs had formal methods for monitoring treatment delivery or systematically evaluating treatment gains.
The study does not allow conclusions about what was effective or ineffective in the CSOP interventions. The findings do suggest, however, that some highly plausible interventions may have little overall effect. The CSOP program was well regarded at the time, and the initial evaluation was encouraging (Stephenson, 1991). Given that very similar programs are still being offered in other jurisdictions, we still have much to learn about how best to intervene with sexual offenders.
The findings of the current study contrast with the positive effects of cognitive-behavioural treatment found in previous reviews (Gallagher et al., 1999; Hanson et al., 2002). No single study is sufficient to determine whether treatment works or not. Those inclined to believe that treatment is effective will emphasize that the interventions examined in the current study did not meet contemporary standards; those inclined to doubt the effectiveness of treatment will emphasize the methodological weaknesses in the other studies that have shown positive treatment effects. The current study is unique, to our knowledge, for the lack of selection bias in the treatment and comparison groups. Understanding of sex offender treatment will advance as individual studies improve, and the cumulative results of these studies are meaningfully integrated through meta-analyses.
Another objective of the current study was to demonstrate practical ways of improving commonly used cohort designs. These studies compare treated sex offenders to an untreated group released prior to the implementation of the treatment program (e.g., Bakker, Hudson, Wales, & Riley, 1999; Martin, 1998; Proctor, 1996). Assuming equal follow-up times, there is no a priori reason for expecting group differences; however, such difference may still exist due to yearby-year variation in the sample or in the response of the criminal justice system. Friendship and Thornton (2001), for example, found substantial differences in sexual offender reconviction rates based on the year of release.
In the current study, two opposing cohort effects were detected: a) offenders released in earlier years were more likely to be recidivists than those released later (controlling for follow-up time and static risk); and b) those released later were higher risk on static risk factors than those released earlier. The first cohort effect could be attributable to the selective attrition of inactive records (Hanson & Nicholaichuk, 2000). The second cohort effect awaits explanation, but does suggest that sexual offenders in CSC changed during the 1980s. Both effects, however, reinforce the need to consider the potential changes (other than the introduction of treatment) that could influence the typical cohort design. The information needed to conduct these analyses is readily available, if rarely used.
The current study addressed these cohort effects by statistically controlling for follow-up time, year of release, and eight static risk factors. Although any number of unmeasured factors could still be influencing the results, these control variables accounted for a significant amount of variability of the recidivism criteria. Given the case with which they can be collected, routine consideration of these (or similar) control variables should be considered the minimum requirements for future studies of sexual offender treatment outcome.
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Received January 17, 2003
Revised August 7, 2003
Accepted October 2, 2003
R. KARL HANSON, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada
IAN BROOM, Carleton University
MARYLEE STEPHENSON, CS/RESORS Consulting Ltd.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
Correspondence should be addressed to R. K. Hanson, Corrections Research, Department of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada, 340 Laurier Avenue, West, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A OP8 (E-mail: hansonk @sgc.gc.ca).
Copyright Canadian Psychological Association Apr 2004
Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved
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Labels: ( .News-Recidivism, ( .News-Special, ( .News-Treatment, /Canada, 2004
September 14, 2007
DOES THE PRISON TREATMENT PROGRAM REDUCE RECIDIVISM?
I find the results of this recidivism study statistically invalid due to the selection process used which only allows high risk offenders into treatment. The state, in 2006, concluded that therapy does not reduce recidivism.
Explanation:
Initially the researchers chose everyone who was willing to participate in therapy. Then they divided that into two groups: A) Those who DID NOT participate in therapy; and, b) Those who DID particpate in therapy. No matter which group the person fell into each had to have a prior sex offense conviction.
Now the catch, in order to particpate in therapy a prescreening process was applied. i.e. risk assessment tools MnSORT-R, RRASOR, and Static 99 were used to chose who could go into therapy. ONLY those who "had a high likelihood to reoffend" were permitted in therapy.
Anyone who DID NOT fit that requirement was pushed into the group of those who DID NOT participate in therapy group. In other words the DID NOT participate group was a mixed group of offenders. It contained folks who were willing to take therapy but did not, and those who fell out of the prescreening process.
Now a review of Exhibit 2 (pg-3) shows the study was not interested in just new sex offenses, instead recidivism means any kind of offense. i.e., the definition of recidivism meant more than just sex offenses. It appears ridiculous to assume that sex offender treatment program (SOTP) is designed to reduce recidivism of all kinds of offenses.
Exhibit 2 shows of those who went through therapy, 12 committed a new sex offense, and only 6 of those in the opposing group committed a new sex offense. Based upon that outcome researchers concluded, that therapy did not reduce recidivism.
What? Remember, the deck is stacked, only high risk of reoffense folks went to therapy, and low or medium risk did not. The outcome was predictible based on the prescreening process.
This is why I feel the study is statistically invalid. Additionally I see a few other things but what I mentioned above was more than enough to go no further.
eAdvocate
With that said, the study:
SEX OFFENDER SENTENCING IN WASHINGTON STATE: DOES THE PRISON TREATMENT PROGRAM REDUCE RECIDIVISM?
The 2004 Legislature directed the Washington State Institute for Public Policy (Institute) to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the impact and effectiveness of current sex offender sentencing policies.1 Because this is an extensive topic, we are publishing a series of reports.
The Washington State Department of Corrections (DOC) has operated a prison-based Sex Offender Treatment Program (SOTP) at the Twin Rivers Corrections Center since 1988. The program has undergone a series of changes since its inception. Since 1996, the program has used a combination of treatment techniques including group therapy, psycho-educational classes, behavioral treatment, and family involvement. The length of treatment has decreased from two years in 1996 to approximately one year currently. Since 2000, sex offenders assessed as having a high likelihood to reoffend, based on their criminal history, are prioritized for program entry.2 (FN2: The SOTP uses three risk for sexual reoffense
assessments: MnSOST-R, RRASOR, and Static 99.)
Offenders selected for the treatment program must meet the following five requirements:
• Sex offense conviction
• Voluntary participation
• Admission of guilt
• One year minimum remaining in prison
• Medium or lower custody classification
This report estimates whether SOTP reduces recidivism by comparing the recidivism rates of sex offenders who were willing but did not participate in SOTP with those who did participate in the program. ..more.. by Washington State Institute for Public Policy
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Labels: .Washington, ( .News-Recidivism, ( .News-Treatment, (.Criticized Study, 2006, Tool MnSORT-R, Tool RRASOR, Tool Static-99
August 1, 2007
96.5% of new sex offenses are committed by someone who has never before committed a sex offense!
Today when sex offenders are released from prison, back into the community, they are required to register with their local police. Legislatures and the general community believe that, new sex offenses are committed by these former offenders. That for the most part is a myth, and now we can present some hard facts to prove our claim.
To make sense of this issue we searched for a "Victim Study" which showed the number of offenses according to victims. The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) has a report called "Criminal Victimization in the United States, 1994," published in May of 1997. In 1994 victims reported 432,750 incidents.
Although that report has later versions, we used 1994 to be consistent with the latest sex offender recidivism statistics of the same year, "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994, also published by the DOJ in November 2003.
The DOJ reported 3.5% of those released sex offenders were RECONVICTED for another sex crime within 3 years following their release. (DOJ Pg-24)
Accordingly, victims reported 432,750 incidents. 3.5% of sex offenders released committed another sex offense (recidivated within 3-years of release).
The math: (100% - 3.5% = 96.5%) 96.5% of 432,750 = 417,603 committed by someone other than a former sex offender released from prison.
What more needs to be said?
Important Note:
We do recognize that the 3.5% reconviction rate is over 3-years. However, when switching between rearrest, reconviction, recidivates, recidivism etc. all this muddys the waters and requires a careful read of what is being said.
Part of the explanation is, when a person "recidivates" -that act whenever committed-, is rarely taken to court in the same year, reconviction -if any- would more likely be in the next year. Also, most recidivism (actual acts) occurs in the first year or so following release from prison. (DOJ pg-16). We also didn't feel a simple divide by 3 was fair either, so we just erred on the side of caution, and used 3.5% as an yearly figure.
So, who is committing new sex offenses?
We have a partial answer, see the recidivism study above, within that study is an astounding fact discovered by the DOJ. The DOJ reported that, released sex offenders are four times more likely than other offenders to commit another sex offense.
Sounds bad, but sometimes things are alleged and there is something hidden in them. Notice "than other offenders," well that means other offenders also commit sex offenses when released from prison. Here are the real facts from the above recidivism study:
DOJ pg-24:
"The 15 States in this study released a total of 272,211 prisoners. The 9,691 released sex offenders made up less than 4% of that total. Of the remaining 262,420 non-sex offenders, 3,328 (1.3%) were RE-ARRESTED for a new sex crime within 3-years. By comparison, the 5.3% REARREST rate for the 9,691 released sex offenders was 4-times higher. ..."
| Number Released | Offenders | ReArrested for New Sex Offense | Number of New Sex Offenses | Pct. of New Sex Offenses |
| 9,691 | Sex Offenders | 5.3% | 517 | 13% |
| 262,420 | Non-Sex Offenders | 1.3% | 3,328 | 87% |
| 272,211 | All Offenders | 1.4% | 3,845 | 100% |
Yes, we are showing ReArrest numbers this time. The shocking fact is, that non-sex offenders released commit six times the number of sex offenses than do sex offenders released. Study that, from the DOJ, non-sex offenders present a bigger danger to communities than do sex offenders. Someone needs to tell lawmakers this truth!
One interesting fact, all this is before the beginning of sex offender registries, and shows they were not justified. One day when a new DOJ recidivism study is published, we will again review this calculation. For now this is the best available, backed by victim and offender statistics.
We need to constantly ask "Legislators," why they continually focus new more restrictive legislation on ALL registered sex offenders, when they have the second lowest recidivism rate, murder is lower, and legislators ignore the group committing "96.5% of new sex offenses," persons who have never before committed a sex offense!
The collateral effect on society from this legislative stance is a disaster, not only are offender lives being destroyed, but the legislation is harmful to the children and families of previously convicted sex offenders!
What is their relationshionship, if any, to the victim?
The DOJ, in the above study, found out. Most are related to the victim or within the victim's daily circle of activities. The DOJ reviewed 73,116 cases and found the following, but it is better to see our chart: Department of Justice: Victim/Offender Relationship Statistics
Notice the percentages, at the top of the chart, break down into "All Offenses," "Offenses Against Adults," and "Offenses Against Minors." As to those under 18 (minors) 93.3% of the offenses are committed by family members, friends and acquaintances. Lawmakers need to wake up and stop claiming and enacting "Stranger Danger" legislation! Stop the false hysteria!
eAdvocate

