96.5% of new sex offenses are committed by someone who has never before committed a sex offense!

Many folks have disputed this claim, saying, you need to ask victims to get the truth!
Today when sex offenders are released from prison, back into the community, they are required to register with their local police. Legislatures and the general community believe that, new sex offenses are committed by these former offenders. That for the most part is a myth, and now we can present some hard facts to prove our claim.

To make sense of this issue we searched for a "Victim Study" which showed the number of offenses according to victims. The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) has a report called "Criminal Victimization in the United States, 1994," published in May of 1997. In 1994 victims reported 432,750 incidents.

Although that report has later versions, we used 1994 to be consistent with the latest sex offender recidivism statistics of the same year, "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994, also published by the DOJ in November 2003.

The DOJ reported 3.5% of those released sex offenders were RECONVICTED for another sex crime within 3 years following their release. (DOJ Pg-24)

Accordingly, victims reported 432,750 incidents. 3.5% of sex offenders released committed another sex offense (recidivated within 3-years of release).

The math: (100% - 3.5% = 96.5%) 96.5% of 432,750 = 417,603 committed by someone other than a former sex offender released from prison.

What more needs to be said?

Important Note:
We do recognize that the 3.5% reconviction rate is over 3-years. However, when switching between rearrest, reconviction, recidivates, recidivism etc. all this muddys the waters and requires a careful read of what is being said.

Part of the explanation is, when a person "recidivates" -that act whenever committed-, is rarely taken to court in the same year, reconviction -if any- would more likely be in the next year. Also, most recidivism (actual acts) occurs in the first year or so following release from prison. (DOJ pg-16). We also didn't feel a simple divide by 3 was fair either, so we just erred on the side of caution, and used 3.5% as an yearly figure.

So, who is committing new sex offenses?

We have a partial answer, see the recidivism study above, within that study is an astounding fact discovered by the DOJ. The DOJ reported that, released sex offenders are four times more likely than other offenders to commit another sex offense.

Sounds bad, but sometimes things are alleged and there is something hidden in them. Notice "than other offenders," well that means other offenders also commit sex offenses when released from prison. Here are the real facts from the above recidivism study:

DOJ pg-24:
"The 15 States in this study released a total of 272,211 prisoners. The 9,691 released sex offenders made up less than 4% of that total. Of the remaining 262,420 non-sex offenders, 3,328 (1.3%) were RE-ARRESTED for a new sex crime within 3-years. By comparison, the 5.3% REARREST rate for the 9,691 released sex offenders was 4-times higher. ..."

Number Released	Offenders	ReArrested for New Sex Offense	Number of New Sex Offenses	Pct. of New Sex Offenses
9,691	Sex Offenders	5.3%	517	13%
262,420	Non-Sex Offenders	1.3%	3,328	87%
272,211	All Offenders	1.4%	3,845	100%

Yes, we are showing ReArrest numbers this time. The shocking fact is, that non-sex offenders released commit six times the number of sex offenses than do sex offenders released. Study that, from the DOJ, non-sex offenders present a bigger danger to communities than do sex offenders. Someone needs to tell lawmakers this truth!

One interesting fact, all this is before the beginning of sex offender registries, and shows they were not justified. One day when a new DOJ recidivism study is published, we will again review this calculation. For now this is the best available, backed by victim and offender statistics.

We need to constantly ask "Legislators," why they continually focus new more restrictive legislation on ALL registered sex offenders, when they have the second lowest recidivism rate, murder is lower, and legislators ignore the group committing "96.5% of new sex offenses," persons who have never before committed a sex offense!

The collateral effect on society from this legislative stance is a disaster, not only are offender lives being destroyed, but the legislation is harmful to the children and families of previously convicted sex offenders!


Who are the 96.5%?
What is their relationshionship, if any, to the victim?
The DOJ, in the above study, found out. Most are related to the victim or within the victim's daily circle of activities. The DOJ reviewed 73,116 cases and found the following, but it is better to see our chart: Department of Justice: Victim/Offender Relationship Statistics

Notice the percentages, at the top of the chart, break down into "All Offenses," "Offenses Against Adults," and "Offenses Against Minors." As to those under 18 (minors) 93.3% of the offenses are committed by family members, friends and acquaintances. Lawmakers need to wake up and stop claiming and enacting "Stranger Danger" legislation! Stop the false hysteria!

eAdvocate