Showing posts with label Tool Static-2002. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tool Static-2002. Show all posts

December 21, 2012

Punish the sex offender — not the entire offender group

This is an Opinion article by USA FAIR, Shana Rowan
12-21-2012 Massachusetts:

The recent arrest of John Burbine, a Level 1 registered sex offender charged with molesting 13 babies and toddlers, has understandably ignited the emotions of Massachusetts residents. If these heinous and depraved charges are proven in court than the full weight of the law should be brought down upon this individual.

What should not happen is retribution against the entire population of law-abiding registered sex offenders residing in the state, most of whom are just focused on rebuilding their lives as good citizens and providers for their families. Punish the offender — not the entire offender group.

The recent announcement by House Speaker Robert DeLeo that he is going to re-examine stalled legislation that would result in the state conforming to the federal Adam Walsh Act suggests that an outbreak of sex offender panic might strike Beacon Hill. Many enlightened states, including New York and California, have rejected AWA t on the basis of sound principles of sex offender management and Massachusetts should continue to do likewise.

The history of sex offender laws in the United States has been to react to rare, high profile, and heinous crimes, while ignoring the fact that sex offenders have one of the lowest recidivism rates of all offender groups in the criminal justice system. The myth of high recidivism is pervasive. A 2010 survey by the US Department of Justice found that 75 percent of the population believed that sex crime recidivism was greater than 50 percent while only 3 percent of the population believed that it was less than 25 percetn — even though every major broad based study conducted over the last decade has shown it to be substantially below 25 percent.

One of the most recent studies entitled “A Multi-State Recidivism Study Using Static-99R and Static-2002 Risk Scores and Tier Guidelines from the Adam Walsh Act” (Zgoba, Miner, Knight, Letourneau, Levenson, Thornton) was released in November and found recidivism at 10 percent after 10 years.

This study focused on the relative predictability of recidivism risk between scientifically tested actuarial risk assessment instruments and the AWA requirement to assign risk tiers based solely on the conviction. The study found, “Actuarial measures and existing state tiering systems both showed better predictive validity than AWA tiers.” This finding confirmed common knowledge that people who commit the same crime do not pose the same risk of re-offending. The crime is only one of many offender and victim characteristics that need to be evaluated. This is one of the reasons why the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA), the nation’s largest association representing sex offender treatment professionals opposes AWA.

With state tiering systems performing better than AWA, Massachusetts shouldn’t scrap a system that works just because a Level 1 sex offender committed heinous crimes. Low risk was never meant to mean no risk. Just as most high risk offenders will never commit another sex crime, some low risk offenders will.

The punitive impact on law-abiding former offenders of potentially having their risk level raised through AWA can be a life-destroying event, often resulting in their presence on the public registry website following years, even decades, of offense-free tenure in the community. Experience has shown that in other states that have expanded its public registry many law-abiding former offenders have lost jobs and become subject to residency restrictions that have forced them to move. Such actions not only impact registrants, but their family members -including minor children — as well who suffer the collateral consequences of the registry. Listing on the website should be reserved only for those who have been deemed truly dangerous.

It is easy to understand the emotional appeal of the “if it just saves one child” argument, but basing public policy on the rare horrific crime committed by one registered sex offender, while ignoring the extensive research of the entire former sex offender population, does not result in a fair and reasoned criminal justice system. The Massachusetts Legislature should consider the ramifications of adopting AWA in a deliberative manner and avoid rushing to judgment in a knee jerk response to Burbine’s atrocities. ..Opinion The Boston Globe...

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April 21, 2010

New study: Do popular actuarials work?

4-21-2010 National:

From In The News by Karen Franklin:

Newer instruments outperform Static-99 and RRASOR

If you evaluate sex offenders, you may be overwhelmed by the dizzying array of actuarial risk assessment instruments vying for your vote: Static-99, RM 2000, RRASOR, Static-2002, SORAG, MnSOST-R. The list of weird-looking acronyms grows ever longer, and the validity studies more complex.

For help figuring out which instruments do what, and how well, I recommend a study by two Canadians, Jan Looman and Jeffrey Abracen, just published in the Journal of Interpersonal Violence. The study compared the ability of four leading instruments to predict recidivism among a sample of 419 high-risk Canadian sex offenders. Overall, about 15% of the released offenders were convicted of a new sex offense when the follow-up time period was held at a constant of seven years.

Among the interesting findings:

•When rapists and child molesters were examined separately, none of the instruments were able to predict sexual recidivism (defined as a new conviction) for child molesters.

•The RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism) bombed completely as a predictive tool. The Static-99, a descendant of the RRASOR and the most widely used actuarial for assessing sex offender risk, did not do much better. As the authors note, since their sample was similar to U.S. offenders subject to civil commitment as Sexually Violent Predators (SVPs), the lack of predictive validity of these instruments raises concerns about their use in SVP proceedings.

•Two newer instruments -- the Static-2002 and the Risk Matrix 2000, developed in England -- did somewhat better. Especially interesting is how the Static-2002 performed. Overall, only two of the instrument's five subscales predicted sexual recidivism. Not surprisingly, these were Age at Release and Persistence of Sexual Offending. This is rather common sensical, in that sex offending declines dramatically with age, and a high score on the Persistence scale indicates an entrenched pattern of sex offending, with an early onset, a high rate, and multiple convictions. When rapists and child molesters were separated out, instead of being lumped together as generic “sex offenders” as they often are, only the Deviant Sexual Interests scale predicted sexual recidivism for the child molesters.

•Finally, age matters. It really does. The few who continue to deny this obvious fact are just being stubborn. Similar to other studies, only about 2% of offenders over 50 reoffended (one child molester and one rapist, in this case), compared with 20% of those ages 25 to 35.

Of course, this is just one study. Other studies comparing the accuracy of instruments for assessing sex offender risk have come to various and contradictory conclusions. For example, contrast the present findings with those of the Austrian study that I blogged about last month, testing German versions of the RRASOR, Static-99, SORAG, and SVR-20. The publisher of the International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology has just made that study available for free, by the way. Keeping up with this burgeoning literature is a full-time job, unfortunately necessary for practice in this area.

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November 20, 2007

Evaluating and Improving Risk Assessment Schemes for Sexual Recidivism: A Long-Term Follow-Up of Convicted Sexual Offenders

March 2007 217618

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Risk assessment plays a central role in the management of sexual offenders in the criminal justice system, impacting every level of decision-making. The specification of which offenders should be included in state registration or community notification, the distribution of treatment opportunities in prison, the determination of parole eligibility, the allocation of resources in monitoring and supervising offenders in the community, and the ultimate decision to remove the most serious offenders from the community through civil commitment all involve critical choices involving risk. The serious consequences to potential victims, to those offenders who no longer pose a threat to the community, but are denied their civil liberties, and to critical community funds that may be squandered as the result of inaccurate decisions all demand the guidance of the most accurate actuarial algorithms available. Because decisions must be made—even doing nothing constitutes a decision—to choose not to employ the most accurate decision-making algorithms is to choose to pay the costly price of a suboptimal decision.

The aim of the present study was to evaluate and to improve the decision-making algorithms that have been generated to assess risk in sexual offenders. More specifically, it was the task of this research project to evaluate the extant actuarials in a sample of sexual offenders on whom long-term follow up were available. We assessed the comparative accuracy of the major risk instruments over time and over subsamples, explored their underlying factor structure, examined the accuracy of a new assessment protocol (SRA Need Assessment; Thornton, 2002), and explored the potential for generating improved predictive instruments.

In a prior study we (Knight, 1999; Prentky, Knight, & Lee, 1997) had followed 599 offenders who had been referred to the Massachusetts Treatment Center (MTC) for evaluation between 1959 and 1984. Of these 266 (Bridgewater Treatment [BT] sample) had been committed to MTC as “sexually dangerous” and subsequently released, and 333 (Bridgewater Observation [BO] sample) had been determined not to be sexually dangerous and returned to finish their sentences. Of the 333 BO offenders 200 constituted a matched sample (on age at evaluation, marital status, and number of prior crimes) and 200 were randomly sampled from the entire sample BO population evaluated. There was an overlap of 67 offenders selected by both the random and matched process. For all these offenders we had accessed and integrated four outcome record sources, including the Massachusetts Board of Probation records, the Massachusetts Parole Board records, the Massachusetts Treatment Center Authorized Absence Program records, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) records.

In the present study we accessed the archival clinical files for these offenders and coded these records both on modern empirically-derived, mechanical actuarials that have been developed since 1997 for predicting sexual recidivism, including the RRASOR (Hanson, 1997), the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000), the Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, 2003), the SORAG (Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 1998), the MnSOST-R (Epperson, Kaul, Huot, Hesselton, Alexander, & Goldman, 1998), and the Risk Matrix 2000 (Thornton et al., 2003), on two structured clinical guidelines, the SVR-20 (Boer, Hart, Kropp, & Webster, 1997) and the A-SOAP-II (Prentky & Righthand, 2003), and on a new experimental measure, the SRA Needs Assessment (Thornton, 2002). Offenders were also categorized in the Massachusetts Treatment Center Rapist (MTC:R3) and Child Molester (MTC:CM3) typologies and diagnosed according the DSM-IV Antisocial Personality Disorder and Conduct Disorder criteria. All codings and judgments were carried out without any access to or knowledge about the follow-up status of the offenders.

The final report addressed six basic questions. We summarize the findings for each using this framework: ..more.. by Raymond A. Knight, Ph.D. ; David Thornton, Ph.D.

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June 16, 2007

Reliability and Validity of the Static-2002 Among Adult Sexual Offenders with Reference to Treatment Status

May 2007 NCJ 218434:

This study sought to investigate the reliability and validity of the Static-2002, as a measure of sexual offense recidivism risk.

Abstract: Overall, the data is encouraging suggesting that the Static-2002 has reasonable scale properties, can be coded reliably, and is at least as accurate at predicting sexual/serious recidivism as it predecessors, while representing an attempt to enhance conceptual clarity and scoring consistency. The Static-2002 is an instrument developed to predict sexual and violent recidivism among sexual offenders. In a sample comprised of 468 sexual offenders offered treatment at the Warkworth Sexual Behavior Clinic (WSCB), this study carried out a series of analyses to investigate the reliability and validity of the Static-2002. Participants were followed for an average of 5.9 years after their release. Tables, figures, references ..more.. by Calvin M. Langton ; Howard E. Barbaree ; Kevin T. Hansen ; Leigh Harkins ; Edward J. Peacock Study is available from

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