Explanations for the Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

January 2004:

The number of sexual abuse cases substantiated by child protective service (CPS) agencies dropped a remarkable 40 percent between 1992 and 2000, from an estimated 150,000 cases to 89,500 cases, but professional opinion is divided about why (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001; Jones, Finkelhor, and Kopiec, 2001). It is possible that the incidence of sexual abuse has declined as a result of two decades of prevention, treatment, and aggressive criminal justice activity. It is also possible that there has been no real decline, and that the apparent decline is explained by a drop in the number of cases being identified and reported or by changes in practices of child protection agencies.

Identifying the source or sources of the decline in the number of substantiated sexual abuse cases is important. The possibility that a real decline occurred is heartening and could point the way to more effective strategies for preventing all kinds of child maltreatment. On the other hand, if the decline is due solely to decreased reporting or changes in CPS procedures, it could mean that more children are failing to get the help and services they need.

This Bulletin explores the strengths and weaknesses of six possible explanations for the decline by using data from a number of different sources (see page 3): aggregate data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS); detailed child protective service data from Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania; and self-report data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and from schoolchildren in Minnesota. It provides substantially more evidence about the decline than was available in a previous Bulletin on the same topic, The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001). ..more.. by David Finkelhor and Lisa M. Jones