Age and Recidivism: How Accurate are Our Predictions?

November 2004:

Psychopathy and Age

Most crime is perpetrated by males in their late adolescence and early adulthood. After that most offenders commit fewer crimes or stop offending altogether. Many have argued that although most offenders “burn out” and quit offending as they get older, especially violent psychopaths would not “burn out”, but instead would continue to reoffend.

The best-accepted measure of psychopathy is the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R),1 on which a score of 30 or above (out of a possible 40) is recommended as the appropriate cut-off for diagnostic purposes.

Psychopathy, as measured by the PCL-R, is characterized by 20 criteria relating to affective / interpersonal traits (e.g. glibness/superficial charm, pathological lying, lack of remorse, shallow affect; Factor 1) and a chronically impulsive and unstable lifestyle (e.g. need for stimulation, lack of realistic goals, promiscuity; Factor 2). The predictive qualities of the instrument are very good.2

Using the PCL-R, the complete criminal career and community release profiles of 317 Canadian federal offenders (224 low scorers and 93 scoring within the psychopathic range) were compiled.3 Crimes were coded according to age at commission, and were coded as either violent, non-violent, or non-sexually violent. Results showed that offenders scoring within the psychopathic range consistently committed more violent and non-violent crimes than the low-scorers starting in adolescence and continuing into their late-40’s, after which the re-conviction rate of high scorers decreased substantially relative to low-scorers.

For non-violent crimes, the two groups both virtually ceased reoffending by their late 40’s. Similarly, for non-sexual violent crimes, the two groups both virtually ceased re-offending by their late 40’s, with the high scorers actually committing fewer offenses than the low scorers. This effect was even more pronounced for violent crimes, with the high scorers committing fewer offenses than the low-scorers after their early 40’s.

These results indicate that even most psychopaths “burn-out” in mid-life. Reasons may include lack of opportunity, lack of physical strength, ill health, and scrutiny by law and justice agencies, as well as lack of continued criminal propensities. ..more.. by Brett Trowbridge, Ph.D., J.D., Washington Criminal Defense, November 2004, vol. 18 no. 4