Response to a viewer's question

This post is for a specific viewer, and no one is authorized to copy it anywhere else. eAdvocate (All Rights Reserved 2009)

UPDATE 3:30AM 2-22: The police have chaanged their mind on the cousin having the child, which an earlier FoxNews report indicated.

2-20-2009 eAdvocate:

To the viewer asking the question about clusters of sex offenders and possible higher rates of recidivism within those clusters. To our knowledge there are no such studies to support that theory.

While -44 RSOs- may sound like a cluster, the geography of this area may destroy that theory. There is a impassable river that cuts through the area cutting off all access (excepting the railroad tracks) for more than half of the 44 (Click on 3 pictures below). Further, on the side of the river where the Florida family lives there is no real cluster.



















Other times clusters can be formed by lawmakers who try to protect some children, but fail to look at the consequences of their law on other children, those outside of their protected area. One can never forget that, if you protect an area, you also create an unprotected area. An example of a child being killed in an unprotected area is, the Georgia story of Christopher Barrios (a child of a RSO) forced by the state's residency law to live where other RSOs also lived and was ultimately murdered by them.

Further, when you have overlapping protected areas, or very close protected areas, the result is naturally clusters of offenders because of limited housing outside of protected areas. Florida is littered with these areas because the state fails to stop it, thus making it safe for some children and very unsafe for other children. Lawmakers fail to look at the big picture.

With respect to the Florida girl who is missing, so far, there is no reason to believe that a former sex offender is involved at all. Further, following the logic of NSMART Reports, it is more likely the abduction is family or close friend related. see NSMART-1 and Case Management for Missing Children Homicide Investigation.

Given what is known about sex offender recidivism today, it is unlikely (but not ruling them out either) that a former sex offender is involved, recidivism rates are very low. Source Department of Justice study published 2003 (NCJ 198281), a study of all kinds of sex offenders (the class), from which the following charts were constructed for a visual.

See: Sex Offenders -v- Non Sex Offenders

See: Offenders who re-offended against a child

Remember too, that most new sex crimes are committed by someone who has never before committed a sex crime. If recidivism rates generally fall into the 3-5% area (DOJ study of the whole class of sex offenders), then new crimes come from others in society. When citing recidivism studies it is important that, whatever study is cited, that it apply to the class of sex offenders and not a study of just a select group within the class, such as "pedophiles" who would have higher recidivism rates. Often such is done and it distorts the picture.

Too frequently folks jump on sex offenders as causing abductions because of the John Couey case (former sex offender who repeatedly asked for help before murdering Jessica and was repeatedly denied).

However, there is another way to review the Couey case which makes more sense in solving such cases. Instead of jumping to what might have driven a person to commit such a crime, look more to the known physical circumstances and evidence. Couey lived in Jessica's neighborhood (whether properly registered or not) living with his family member, a neighbor of the Lundsfords.

The Department of Justice -in 1997- studied who commits sex crimes and their relationship to the victim of the crime. We charted that study and you can find it here:

That chart shows that 93.3% of the crimes committed against those under 18, were committed by family, friends and acquaintances of the victim. Now, if you can truly rule out immediate family members (46.5%), then you must look at the remaining 46.8% and their relationship to the victim.

Remember, Couey was a neighbor of the Lundsfords, and "neighborhood" is where the search should be focused, those folks who would know of the girl (whether they actually knew the girl or not), and other folks who are in the life of the child who live close to where the child lives. Now, if you have read the NSMART Reports, this is exactly what the DOJ reported as to who most likely abducts children.

Finally, while this is pure speculation, it does follow what the Department of Justice has already reported in their NSMART studies mentioned above.

If anyone else has other thoughts then please submit comments (please keep them on topic and clean) and they will be posted.

This post is for a specific viewer, and no one is authorized to copy it anywhere else. eAdvocate (All Rights Reserved 2009)