Behind the numbers

2-1-2008 National:

Ask the next hundred people you meet if child sexual abuse cases are increasing nationwide and don't be surprised if everyone says yes. Lisa Jones wouldn't be surprised, even though she knows cases have decreased 49 percent since 1990.

This surprisingly good news could be very bad news for posturing politicians trying to use scare tactics to limit personal freedom.

If the bogeyman is only half the man he supposedly was, citizens would be less likely to support demagogues wanting to police the so-called back alleys of the information superhighway or to impose new taxes or draconian zoning restrictions on adult bookstore-type business.

Ms. Jones is a research assistant professor of psychology at the Crimes Against Children Research Center at the University of New Hampshire. The center focuses on child abuse and neglect and how communities should respond to those most helpless of victims.

There is not enough media attention, even though for 15 years there has been an unmistakable downward trend," Jones says. Big Media's focus on sexual predators, including those trolling the Internet, and programs such as "To Catch a Predator" on NBC might have created a skewed image in people's minds, she suggests.
In most cases, the victim knows the perpetrator (roughly half are family members), she says. "Strangers make up the smallest group of predators, from 7 percent up to 25 percent, depending on the study," she says. To catch a predator, some families only need lure the relatives over for dinner.

But what about critics who believe all data are suspect because it can be so difficult for young victims to "disclose" and since each state could have its own system to collect data and crunch numbers?

Jones concedes that many cases probably do go unreported. But the so-called iceberg analogy takes that into account, she says. For example, say there were 100 cases reported for every thousand people in 1995. However, by 2005, only 50 per every thousand were reported. "We have no reason to believe the iceberg has changed," Jones says.

For Pennsylvania, sexual abuse cases identified by child protective service agencies declined from a rate of 15.3 per 10,000 children in 1992 to 9.7 per 10,000 children in 2005 (the most recent year for which data are available), for a total decline of 37 percent over 13 years, she says. The largest part of the decline occurred in the mid-1990s.

The statistics for this commonwealth, and for the other 49 states, are reported annually by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration on Children, Youth, and Families.

"The numbers are pretty accurate," Jones says.

Jones concedes that the fear of losing funding might be why agencies serving child sex abuse victims might downplay the tremendous success in the ongoing battle.

However, she believes as more funders learn that the problem can be cut down to size, they will be more likely to fund agencies that are making a difference by prevention and intervention.

There's a wealth of free information at the center's Web site -- unh.edu/ccrc -- about the untold success.

People who now pay closer attention to little victims when they decide to disclose also should pay closer attention to what the studies disclose. ..more.. by Dimitri Vassilaros is a Tribune-Review editorial page columnist. His column appears Fridays. He can be reached at dvassilaros@tribweb.com or 412-380-5637.