January 2001:
Introduction:
Of all crimes against children, sexual abuse has arguably captured the greatest share of attention from child advocates, professionals, policymakers, and the general public. During the 1980’s, increasing numbers of victims were identified each year (American Association for the Protection of Children, 1988) and concerns about this crime intensified. However, a dramatic shift in child sexual abuse trends has occurred. Data from child protective services (CPS) agencies across the country indicate that the increases of the 1980’s were followed by an extensive period of marked declines in the 1990’s. Unfortunately, little effort has been expended to uncover the reasons why fewer cases of child sexual abuse have been identified each year. The decline in child sexual abuse cases is being highlighted as a part of OJJDP’s Crimes Against Children Series to illustrate the importance of tracking and investigating trends in child victimization. This Bulletin uses data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) and the Annual Fifty State Survey conducted by Prevent Child Abuse America to present evidence about the decline in reported and substantiated child sexual abuse cases since the early 1990’s. Several explanations for the decline are considered, and corresponding policy implications are discussed.
Highlights
The analysis of child sexual abuse cases presented in this Bulletin reveals the following:
Substantiated cases of child sexual abuse decreased from a national estimated peak of 149,800 cases in 1992 to 103,600 cases in 1998, a decline of 31 percent.
A decline in substantiated cases has occurred in the majority of States, with no clear regional pattern. Out of 47 States with complete data, 36 recorded a decline of more than 30 percent since their peak year. The average decline for all States was 37 percent.
For most States, the decline was gradual, rather than abrupt, and occurred over several years.
Although cases of other types of child maltreatment have also declined in recent years, the decrease in child sexual abuse cases has been more marked. Substantiated cases of physical abuse declined 16 percent from a 1995 peak, compared with a 31-percent decline in child sexual abuse cases.
In addition to the decline in the number of substantiated cases, child sexual abuse reports also decreased from an estimated 429,000 in 1991 to 315,400 in 1998, a 26-percent decline.
Possible explanations for the decline include a real underlying decline in the incidence of child sexual abuse or changes in attitudes, policies, and standards that have reduced the amount of child sexual abuse being reported and substantiated. It is possible that both of these processes are affecting trends in child sexual abuse. ..more.. by Lisa Jones and David Finkelhor
June 26, 2007
The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases
Explanations for the Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases
January 2004:
The number of sexual abuse cases substantiated by child protective service (CPS) agencies dropped a remarkable 40 percent between 1992 and 2000, from an estimated 150,000 cases to 89,500 cases, but professional opinion is divided about why (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001; Jones, Finkelhor, and Kopiec, 2001). It is possible that the incidence of sexual abuse has declined as a result of two decades of prevention, treatment, and aggressive criminal justice activity. It is also possible that there has been no real decline, and that the apparent decline is explained by a drop in the number of cases being identified and reported or by changes in practices of child protection agencies.
Identifying the source or sources of the decline in the number of substantiated sexual abuse cases is important. The possibility that a real decline occurred is heartening and could point the way to more effective strategies for preventing all kinds of child maltreatment. On the other hand, if the decline is due solely to decreased reporting or changes in CPS procedures, it could mean that more children are failing to get the help and services they need.
This Bulletin explores the strengths and weaknesses of six possible explanations for the decline by using data from a number of different sources (see page 3): aggregate data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS); detailed child protective service data from Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania; and self-report data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and from schoolchildren in Minnesota. It provides substantially more evidence about the decline than was available in a previous Bulletin on the same topic, The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001). ..more.. by David Finkelhor and Lisa M. Jones
