January 2005
Abstract
Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) is the most commonly used actuarial risk tool for estimating sexual offender recidivism risk. Recent research has suggested that its methods of accounting for the offenders’ ages may be insufficient to capture declines in recidivism risk associated with advanced age. Using data from 8 samples (combined size of 3,425 sexual offenders), the present study found that older offenders had lower Static-99 scores than younger offenders and that Static-99 was moderately accurate in estimating relative recidivism risk in all age groups. Older offenders, however, displayed lower sexual recidivism rates than would be expected based on their Static-99 risk categories. Consequently, evaluators using Static-99 should consider advanced age in their overall estimate of risk. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada
September 14, 2007
The Validity of Static-99 with Older Sexual Offenders
June 9, 2007
Predictors of Sexual Recidivism: An Updated Meta-Analysis, 2004-02
2004-02
Abstract
This quantitative review examined the research evidence concerning recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders. A total of 95 different studies were examined, involving more than 31,000 sexual offenders and close to 2000 recidivism predictions. The results confirmed deviant sexual interests and antisocial orientation as important predictors of sexual recidivism. Antisocial orientation (e.g., unstable lifestyle, history of rule violation) was a particularly important predictor of violent non-sexual recidivism and general recidivism. The study also identified a number of new predictor variables, some of which have the potential of being useful targets for intervention (e.g., sexual preoccupations, conflicts in intimate relationships, emotional identification with children, hostility). Actuarial risk instruments were consistently more accurate than unguided clinical opinion in predicting sexual, violent nonsexual and general recidivism. For the prediction of sexual recidivism, there were no significant differences in the predictive accuracy of the various actuarial measures (e.g., SORAG, Static -99). Actuarial measures designed to predict general (any) criminal recidivism were strong predictors of general recidivism among sexual offenders. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson -and- Kelly Morton-Bourgon, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada
Dynamic Predictors Of Sexual Recidivism, 1998-1
1998-1
Executive Summary
Given the importance of effective community supervision of sexual offenders, there is surprisingly little research indicating when sexual offenders are likely to re-offend. In the present study, information on dynamic (changeable) risk factors was collected through interviews with community supervision officers and file reviews of 208 sexual offense recidivists and 201 non-recidivists. The sexual offenders were selected from all regions of the Correctional Service of Canada and from all provinces (except P.E.I.). The recidivists had committed a new sexual offense while on some form of community supervision (probation, parole, mandatory supervision). The non-recidivists were matched to the recidivists on victim type, criminal history, geographical region and jurisdiction. The study examined approximately equal numbers of rapists, boy-victim child molesters and girl-victim child molesters.
Despite efforts to match the recidivistic and non-recidivistic groups, some differences remained in static, historical variables. In comparison to the non-recidivists, the recidivists had a greater history of sexual deviance, such as diverse types of victims, stranger victims, juvenile offenses and paraphilias (e.g., exhibitionism, cross-dressing). As well, the recidivists showed more signs of an antisocial lifestyle than did the non-recidivists. The recidivists were more likely to meet criteria for antisocial personality, psychopathy (PCL-R), and had higher scores on objective risk scales (SIR and VRAG).
Officer interviews indicated that the recidivists displayed more problems while on supervision than did the non-recidivists. In particular, the recidivists 1 were generally considered to have poor social supports, attitudes tolerant of sexual assault, antisocial behaviour, poor self-management strategies and difficulties cooperating with supervision. The overall mood of the recidivists and non-recidivists was similar, but the recidivists showed increased anger and subjective distress just prior to re-offending.
More of the recidivists than the non-recidivists were using sex drive reducing medications (anti-androgens). A possible explanation is that officers insisted on medication only for the most severe cases. The study was not intended to test the efficacy of hormonal treatments; nevertheless, officers should be aware that sexual offenders still present considerable risk for sexual offense recidivism after the introduction of sex drive reducing medication.
The offenders’ attitudes and behaviour during supervision continued to be strongly associated with recidivism even after controlling for pre-existing differences in static risk factors (overall R = .60, p < .001). The dynamic factors identified in the interview data were reflected (to a lesser extent) in the officers' contemporaneous case notes, which suggests that the interview findings cannot be completely attributed to retrospective recall bias.
Carefully monitoring the risk indicators identified in this study should help officers to provide graduated and responsive interventions well before the point of no return. ..more.. by R. Karl Hanson -and- Andrew Harris, Corrections Research, Department of the Solicitor General Canada
